HRTG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HRTG - HERITAGE INSURANCE HOLDINGS INC
$33.84
0.21 (0.62%)
▲
5d:
-0.35%
30d:
+28.77%
90d:
+44.31%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: HRTG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: HRTG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$48.24
Based on 10.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$29.95
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 5.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HRTG is currently trading at $33.84, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $27.63 to $33.38. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 6.5) compared to its historical average (5.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HRTG is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $31.93, while resistance sits at $34.96.
Market Sentiment: HRTG scores 22/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $39.00 (+15.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HRTG is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $31.93, while resistance sits at $34.96.
Market Sentiment: HRTG scores 22/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $39.00 (+15.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$27.63 -
$33.38
Company Quality Score
39/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
27.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (22/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($39.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 39/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$27.63 -
$33.38
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$31.93
Resistance Level
$34.96
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.53
Wall Street Target
$39.00
(+15.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
32.3%
Profit Margin
25.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.0% premium
PE vs Historical
6.5 vs 5.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$35.19
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$36.60
(+8%)
3-Year Target
$38.07
(+13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→6)
PE COMPRESSION
$33.82
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 16.0%)
$104.53
(+209%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.5, Growth: 16.0%)
$34.00
(+1%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.5, Growth: 16.0%)
$28.90
(-15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 4.76 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.07
Bull Case
$27.12
(-20%)
Analyst growth -26.7%, PE expands to 5.2
Base Case
$24.66
(-27%)
Market implied -26.7%, PE stable at 4.8
Bear Case
$22.87
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 4.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 6:33 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:33 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:33 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HRTG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ernie J Garateix
SELL
8334 shares
2026-04-20
Timothy Moura
SELL
24769 shares
2026-04-02
Sharon Binnun
SELL
9200 shares
2026-04-01
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