HRTG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HRTG - HERITAGE INSURANCE HOLDINGS INC
$28.39
0.33 (1.18%)
▲
5d:
+3.5%
30d:
+27.88%
90d:
+8.52%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
20d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: HRTG is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: HRTG is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$36.43
Based on 6.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.62
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 5.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HRTG is currently trading at $28.39, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $22.38 to $26.97. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.0) is in line with its historical norms (5.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HRTG is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $22.88. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HRTG has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $31.50 (+11.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HRTG is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $22.88. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HRTG has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $31.50 (+11.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$22.38 -
$26.97
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
55.7%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+5.3% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($31.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$22.38 -
$26.97
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$20.48
Resistance Level
$22.88
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.00
Wall Street Target
$31.50
(+11.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
20.1%
Profit Margin
23.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.5% premium
PE vs Historical
6.0 vs 5.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$28.82
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$29.25
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$29.69
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→6)
PE COMPRESSION
$28.21
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 8.4%)
$131.30
(+363%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.0, Growth: 8.4%)
$36.16
(+27%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.1, Growth: 8.4%)
$30.73
(+8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 4.30 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.52
Bull Case
$22.41
(-21%)
Analyst growth -27.4%, PE expands to 4.7
Base Case
$20.37
(-28%)
Market implied -27.4%, PE stable at 4.3
Bear Case
$19.08
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 3.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 8:11 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:11 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:11 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HRTG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
9
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ernie J Garateix
SELL
8334 shares
2026-04-20
Timothy Moura
SELL
24769 shares
2026-04-02
Sharon Binnun
SELL
9200 shares
2026-04-01
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