Morgan Stanley (MS) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MS - Morgan Stanley
$202.58
-0.94 (-0.46%)
▼
5d:
-5.5%
30d:
-5.44%
90d:
-9.23%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 14, 2026
22d
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Sep 18, 2026 at $202.58 · last confirmed Sep 18, 2026
Strength: 6.9/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MS shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MS shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$265.05
Based on 4.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$164.57
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MS is currently trading at $202.58, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $208.43 to $217.85. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.8) is in line with its historical norms (15.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 62.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MS is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $200.26. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MS scores 16/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $236.43 (+16.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MS is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $200.26. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MS scores 16/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $236.43 (+16.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$208.43 -
$217.85
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding MS? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (16/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($236.43)
- WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$208.43 -
$217.85
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$200.26
Resistance Level
$218.51
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.81
Wall Street Target
$236.43
(+16.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
28.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
62.4%
Profit Margin
25.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.8 vs 15.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$199.95
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$197.35
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$194.78
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→15)
$202.57
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 5.4%)
$323.68
(+60%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.8, Growth: 5.4%)
$237.29
(+17%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.6, Growth: 5.4%)
$201.69
(0%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.33 | Current EPS (TTM): $12.46
Bull Case
$245.80
(+21%)
Analyst growth 9.8%, PE expands to 18.0
Base Case
$223.45
(+10%)
Market implied 9.8%, PE stable at 16.3
Bear Case
$138.39
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.8 to 15.4
Stabilization Target:
$210.68
(+4.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 21, 2026 2:07 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:07 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:07 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Eric F Grossman
SELL
11118 shares
2026-04-20
Daniel A Simkowitz
SELL
14690 shares
2026-04-17
Andrew M Saperstein
SELL
51668 shares
2026-04-16
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Advanced MS Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MS price and gamma walls.
