Paccar (PCAR) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PCAR - Paccar Inc
$114.73
-1.33 (-1.15%)
▼
5d:
-6.62%
30d:
-11.02%
90d:
-4.49%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 20, 2026
27d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: PCAR shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: PCAR shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$234.96
Based on 12.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$145.89
21.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PCAR is currently trading at $114.73, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $120.12 to $129.32. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 15.9) compared to its historical average (18.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 4.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PCAR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $113.77. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PCAR scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $144.80 (+26.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PCAR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $113.77. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PCAR scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $144.80 (+26.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$120.12 -
$129.32
Company Quality Score
46/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding PCAR? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 26.2% below Wall St target ($144.80)
- WARNING: Composite score 46/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$120.12 -
$129.32
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$113.77
Resistance Level
$124.67
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.89
Wall Street Target
$144.80
(+26.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
4.2%
Profit Margin
9.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.9 vs 18.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$109.45
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$104.42
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$99.61
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→18)
$114.76
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 20.7%)
$257.36
(+124%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.9, Growth: 20.7%)
$201.89
(+76%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.5, Growth: 20.7%)
$171.61
(+50%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.43 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.75
Bull Case
$194.11
(+69%)
Analyst growth 52.0%, PE expands to 26.9
Base Case
$176.47
(+54%)
Market implied 52.0%, PE stable at 24.4
Bear Case
$78.92
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.9 to 18.3
Stabilization Target:
$132.17
(+15.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+15.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 21, 2026 11:43 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:43 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:43 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PCAR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's PCAR price and gamma walls.
