SHOP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SHOP - Shopify Inc. Class A subordinate voting shares
$149.25
2.07 (1.41%)
▲
5d:
-3.29%
30d:
+33.26%
90d:
+42.33%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SHOP shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SHOP shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$118.95
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$73.86
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SHOP is currently trading at $149.25, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $119.92 to $148.94. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 60.0) is in line with its historical norms (59.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SHOP is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $144.12, while resistance sits at $158.87.
Market Sentiment: SHOP scores 27/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $168.43 (+14.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SHOP is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $144.12, while resistance sits at $158.87.
Market Sentiment: SHOP scores 27/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $168.43 (+14.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$119.92 -
$148.94
Company Quality Score
46/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
27.1%
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View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (27/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($168.43)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 46/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$119.92 -
$148.94
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$144.12
Resistance Level
$158.87
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
59.99
Wall Street Target
$168.43
(+14.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
33.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
68.1%
Profit Margin
14.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.1% premium
PE vs Historical
60.0 vs 59.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$146.73
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$146.87
(+0%)
3-Year Target
$147.02
(+0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 60→60)
PE COMPRESSION
$146.80
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 60.0, Growth: 28.6%)
$311.65
(+113%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 28.6%)
$104.26
(-29%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 28.6%)
$88.62
(-40%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (99x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (60x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 99.04 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.48
Bull Case
$266.20
(+78%)
Analyst growth 65.1%, PE expands to 108.9
Base Case
$242.00
(+62%)
Market implied 65.1%, PE stable at 99.0
Bear Case
$99.67
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 84.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 24, 2026 2:53 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:53 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:53 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SHOP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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