TDG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TDG - TransDigm Group Incorporated
$1200.35
19.95 (1.69%)
▲
5d:
-4.5%
30d:
-1.11%
90d:
-0.74%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TDG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: TDG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$2006.71
Based on 10.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$1246.01
3.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TDG is currently trading at $1200.35, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $1209.30 to $1267.73. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 24.4) compared to its historical average (28.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 10.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TDG is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $1179.95. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 48/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $1522.79 (+29.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TDG is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $1179.95. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 48/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $1522.79 (+29.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$1209.30 -
$1267.73
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding TDG? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (48/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 29.0% below Wall St target ($1522.79)
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (48/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$1209.30 -
$1267.73
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$57.86
(4.8%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$1179.95
Resistance Level
$1265.76
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
24.39
Wall Street Target
$1522.79
(+29.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
22.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
10.9%
Profit Margin
21.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
24.4 vs 28.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$1127.28
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$1076.55
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$1028.11
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 24→28)
$1180.36
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 24.4, Growth: 17.5%)
$1915.13
(+62%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 17.5%)
$1576.03
(+34%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 17.5%)
$1339.62
(+14%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (37x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (24x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 37.46 | Current EPS (TTM): $32.65
Bull Case
$1994.11
(+66%)
Analyst growth 48.2%, PE expands to 41.2
Base Case
$1812.83
(+51%)
Market implied 48.2%, PE stable at 37.5
Bear Case
$831.58
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 31.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 24.4 to 28.0
Stabilization Target:
$1355.20
(+14.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 9:07 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:07 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:07 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TDG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
W Nicholas Howley
SELL
10132 shares
2026-04-20
Joel Reiss
SELL
3900 shares
2026-04-15
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
SELL
2026-03-25
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Advanced TDG Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TDG price and gamma walls.
