TDG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TDG - TransDigm Group Incorporated
$1254.38
4.47 (0.36%)
▲
5d:
+1.43%
30d:
-4.19%
90d:
+8.14%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
TODAY
Get Alerted When TDG Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TDG shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TDG shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$1944.68
Based on 10.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$1207.49
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TDG is currently trading at $1254.38, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $1224.67 to $1323.39. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 26.7) is in line with its historical norms (28.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 11.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TDG is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $1192.08, while resistance sits at $1317.66.
Market Sentiment: TDG has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (5th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $1511.95 (+20.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TDG is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $1192.08, while resistance sits at $1317.66.
Market Sentiment: TDG has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (5th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $1511.95 (+20.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$1224.67 -
$1323.39
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
5th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
86.5%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 5th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 20.5% below Wall St target ($1511.95)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$1224.67 -
$1323.39
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$66.43
(5.3%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$1192.08
Resistance Level
$1317.66
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
26.69
Wall Street Target
$1511.95
(+20.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
11.5%
Profit Margin
21.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
26.7 vs 28.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$1233.06
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$1212.09
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$1191.49
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 27→28)
$1254.66
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 26.7, Growth: 17.4%)
$2027.76
(+62%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.7, Growth: 17.4%)
$1575.24
(+26%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.6, Growth: 17.4%)
$1338.95
(+7%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (40x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (27x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 39.53 | Current EPS (TTM): $31.62
Bull Case
$2043.95
(+63%)
Analyst growth 48.7%, PE expands to 43.5
Base Case
$1858.14
(+48%)
Market implied 48.7%, PE stable at 39.5
Bear Case
$849.94
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 33.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 26.7 to 28.1
Stabilization Target:
$1320.89
(+5.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 11:25 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:25 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:25 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is TDG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
W Nicholas Howley
SELL
10132 shares
2026-04-20
Joel Reiss
SELL
3900 shares
2026-04-15
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
SELL
2026-03-25
Top Rated Aerospace & Defense Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Aerospace & Defense by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
BA
The Boeing Company |
STRONG BUY
27 analysts |
$271 | 60 HOLD |
|
HWM
Howmet Aerospace Inc |
STRONG BUY
25 analysts |
$313 | 53 HOLD |
|
GE
GE Aerospace |
STRONG BUY
20 analysts |
$405 | 63 BUY |
|
RTX
RTX Corporation |
BUY
24 analysts |
$230 | 57 HOLD |
|
KTOS
Kratos Defense & Securit… |
STRONG BUY
19 analysts |
$109 | 59 HOLD |
Advanced TDG Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TDG price and gamma walls.
