Is TGT stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, TGT is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TGT shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of TGT stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for TGT to be between $138.33 and $154.33. The current price is $165.44.

What is the analyst price target for TGT?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for TGT is $144.40. This implies a potential upside of -8.8% from current levels.

TGT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

TGT - Target Corporation

RETAIL-VARIETY STORES

$165.44

7.19 (4.54%) ▲

5d: +7.09%

30d: +23.02%

90d: +31.15%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

Protect Your TGT Gains

Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Aug 19, 2026 0d

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 7, 2026 at $149.70 · last confirmed Aug 21, 2026

Strength: 7.5/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TGT shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 4.5%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$145.86

Based on 4.3% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$90.56

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.5x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: TGT is currently trading at $165.44, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $138.33 to $154.33. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 20.7) compared to its historical average (15.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 10.0% annual earnings growth.

Technical Outlook: Technically, TGT is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $165.48. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.5% recently.

Market Sentiment: TGT scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Historical Trading Range $138.33 - $154.33

Company Quality Score 38/100 (SELL)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 24.8%

Protect Your Profits

TGT is technically overbought (RSI 76). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.

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All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range (+7.2% above its trading range)
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.5%)
BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($144.40)
BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 10.0% growth with 6.7% revenue growth
WARNING: Composite score 38/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $138.33 - $154.33

Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $146.21

Resistance Level $165.48

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Aug 21, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 20.71

Wall Street Target $144.40 (-8.8%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 6.7%

Earnings Growth (YoY) -24.7%

Profit Margin 3.2%

Valuation Premium vs History +10.0% premium

PE vs Historical 20.7 vs 15.5 STRETCHED

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +10.0% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $174.08 (+10%)

2-Year Target $191.48 (+21%)

3-Year Target $210.63 (+33%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 21→16) PE COMPRESSION $157.66 (0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.7, Growth: 4.5%) $180.84 (+14%)

Base: (SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 4.5%) $175.27 (+11%)

Bear: (PE: 15.5, Growth: 4.5%) $135.36 (-15%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 21.03 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.56

Bull Case $176.80 (+7%)

Analyst growth 1.1%, PE expands to 23.1

Base Case $160.73 (-3%)

Market implied 1.1%, PE stable at 21.0

Bear Case $108.12 (-35%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.9

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: August 22, 2026 9:03 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:03 PM

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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

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Net

INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Matthew A Liegel SELL 2053 shares 2026-03-17

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Advanced TGT Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TGT price and gamma walls.

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