UPST Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UPST - Upstart Holdings, Inc. Common stock
$31.32
-1.11 (-3.42%)
▼
5d:
+2.69%
30d:
+8.6%
90d:
+20.55%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: UPST shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 9.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: UPST shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 9.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$82.69
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$51.35
39.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UPST is currently trading at $31.32, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $29.21 to $32.41. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 9.2) compared to its historical average (12.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 209.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UPST is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $29.25, while resistance sits at $34.02. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $40.13 (+28.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UPST is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $29.25, while resistance sits at $34.02. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $40.13 (+28.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$29.21 -
$32.41
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
67.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.4%)
- BULLISH: Trading 28.1% below Wall St target ($40.13)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$29.21 -
$32.41
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$29.25
Resistance Level
$34.02
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.15
Wall Street Target
$40.13
(+28.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
44.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
209.1%
Profit Margin
4.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.2 vs 12.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$28.28
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$25.54
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$23.06
(-26%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→12)
$31.27
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 43.2%)
$219.16
(+600%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.1, Growth: 43.2%)
$92.03
(+194%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.8, Growth: 43.2%)
$78.22
(+150%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (33x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 33.11 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.98
Bull Case
$39.16
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 34.8
Base Case
$32.43
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 33.1
Bear Case
$24.81
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 29.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.1 to 12.4
Stabilization Target:
$42.47
(+35.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+35.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 22, 2026 5:17 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:17 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:17 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UPST showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Natalia Mirgorodskaya
SELL
866 shares
2026-02-25
Natalia Mirgorodskaya
SELL
633 shares
2026-02-20
Sanjay Datta
SELL
7982 shares
2026-02-20
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