What is the fair value of AAOI stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for AAOI to be between $92.13 and $114.20. The current price is $75.57.

What is the analyst price target for AAOI?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for AAOI is $163.40. This implies a potential upside of 116.2% from current levels.

Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

AAOI - Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.

SEMICONDUCTORS & RELATED DEVICES

$75.57

-8.16 (-9.75%) ▼

5d: -31.07%

30d: -22.93%

90d: -26.65%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Oct 16, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Nov 05, 2026 16d

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Oct 12, 2026 at $101.13 · last confirmed Oct 13, 2026

Strength: 7.2/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: AAOI is down 31.1% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 25.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$224.04

Based on 14.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$139.11

45.7% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: AAOI is currently trading at $75.57, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $92.13 to $114.20. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 16.4) compared to its historical average (35.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 22.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, AAOI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $75.43. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 9.7% recently.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $163.40 (+116.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD

Historical Trading Range $92.13 - $114.20

Company Quality Score 51/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 74.8%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (43/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BEARISH: Downward momentum (-9.7%)
BULLISH: Trading 116.2% below Wall St target ($163.40)
WARNING: Composite score 51/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $92.13 - $114.20

Current vs Trading Range OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $75.43

Resistance Level $131.15

Current Trend Strong Downtrend

Technical data as of Oct 16, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 16.42

Wall Street Target $163.40 (+116.2%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 86.4%

Profit Margin -9.6%

Valuation Discount vs History -22.9% cheaper

PE vs Historical 16.4 vs 35.8 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -22.9% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $68.01 (-10%)

2-Year Target $61.21 (-19%)

3-Year Target $55.09 (-27%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 16→36) $120.10 (+59%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 19.9, Growth: 576.8%) $308.46 (+308%)

Base: (SPY PE: 16.4, Growth: 576.8%) $255.05 (+238%)

Bear: (PE: 14.0, Growth: 576.8%) $216.79 (+187%)

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.4 to 35.8

Stabilization Target: $164.75 (+118.0%)

PE Expansion Potential: +118.0%

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Last updated: October 19, 2026 9:36 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:36 AM

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Advanced AAOI Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AAOI price and gamma walls.

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