Ares Commercial Real Estate (ACRE) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ACRE - Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation
$3.44
-0.02 (-0.43%)
▼
5d:
+8.7%
30d:
-16.42%
90d:
-20.3%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 28, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 06, 2026
8d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ACRE appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -15.9% annual earnings decline despite 1598% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ACRE appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -15.9% annual earnings decline despite 1598% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$8.15
Based on 7.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$5.06
32.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ACRE is currently trading at $3.44, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $3.36 to $4.06. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 10.5) compared to its historical average (17.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 15.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 1598.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACRE is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $3.16, while resistance sits at $3.69.
Market Sentiment: ACRE scores 88/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $5.00 (+44.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACRE is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $3.16, while resistance sits at $3.69.
Market Sentiment: ACRE scores 88/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $5.00 (+44.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$3.36 -
$4.06
Company Quality Score
67/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
33th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
86.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 33th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (88/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 44.9% below Wall St target ($5.00)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 88/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$3.36 -
$4.06
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.60
(17.5%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$3.16
Resistance Level
$3.69
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 27, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.51
Wall Street Target
$5.00
(+44.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-58.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1598.1%
Profit Margin
-12.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-15.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.5 vs 17.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-15.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$3.10
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$2.79
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$2.52
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→18)
$4.21
(+22%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 10.3%)
$8.75
(+154%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.5, Growth: 10.3%)
$4.63
(+34%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.9, Growth: 10.3%)
$3.94
(+14%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.5 to 17.6
Stabilization Target:
$5.78
(+67.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+67.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 28, 2026 1:30 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:30 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:30 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ACRE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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