AGI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AGI - Alamos Gold Inc. Class A Common Shares
$38.42
0.78 (2.07%)
▲
5d:
+9.77%
30d:
-4.5%
90d:
-15.97%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 16, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 3.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AGI appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -7.5% annual earnings decline despite 1145% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AGI appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -7.5% annual earnings decline despite 1145% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$90.43
Based on 13.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$56.15
31.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AGI is currently trading at $38.42, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $36.10 to $42.03. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 11.2) compared to its historical average (14.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 1144.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AGI is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $39.19. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AGI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $56.25 (+46.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AGI is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $39.19. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AGI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $56.25 (+46.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$36.10 -
$42.03
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 46.4% below Wall St target ($56.25)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$36.10 -
$42.03
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$32.86
Resistance Level
$39.19
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 16, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.24
Wall Street Target
$56.25
(+46.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
79.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1144.7%
Profit Margin
51.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.2 vs 14.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$35.54
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$32.87
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$30.41
(-21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→14)
$38.42
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 22.9%)
$138.26
(+260%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.2, Growth: 22.9%)
$71.35
(+86%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.6, Growth: 22.9%)
$60.65
(+58%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.00 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.51
Bull Case
$56.39
(+47%)
Analyst growth 36.2%, PE expands to 16.5
Base Case
$51.26
(+33%)
Market implied 36.2%, PE stable at 15.0
Bear Case
$25.60
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.2 to 14.2
Stabilization Target:
$48.54
(+26.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+26.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 16, 2026 6:55 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:55 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:55 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AGI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AGI price and gamma walls.
