AIR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AIR - AAR Corp.
$130.90
-4.77 (-3.52%)
▼
5d:
-8.85%
30d:
+11.54%
90d:
+8.33%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 21, 2026
6d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AIR trades at premium valuation expecting 4.8% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: AIR trades at premium valuation expecting 4.8% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$178.97
Based on 9.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$111.12
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AIR is currently trading at $130.90, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $124.54 to $140.96. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 23.2) compared to its historical average (20.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AIR is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $128.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (10th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AIR is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $128.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (10th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$124.54 -
$140.96
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
10th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
69.2%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AIR? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 10th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.5%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($131.60)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 4.8% growth which is achievable
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -8.9% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$124.54 -
$140.96
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$8.96
(6.8%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$128.00
Resistance Level
$146.75
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
23.17
Wall Street Target
$131.60
(+0.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
24.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
92.0%
Profit Margin
5.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.8% premium
PE vs Historical
23.2 vs 20.1
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$137.18
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$143.77
(+10%)
3-Year Target
$150.67
(+15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23→20)
PE COMPRESSION
$130.68
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 23.2, Growth: 15.2%)
$200.36
(+53%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 15.2%)
$188.30
(+44%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 15.2%)
$160.06
(+22%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (30x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (23x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 29.88 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.54
Bull Case
$185.68
(+42%)
Analyst growth 24.4%, PE expands to 32.9
Base Case
$168.80
(+29%)
Market implied 24.4%, PE stable at 29.9
Bear Case
$92.26
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 25.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 7:37 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:37 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:37 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AIR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
John Mcclain Holmes III
SELL
26175 shares
2026-03-27
John Mcclain Holmes III
SELL
60000 shares
2026-03-26
Sarah Louise Flanagan
SELL
10750 shares
2026-02-04
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AIR price and gamma walls.
