AAR (AIR) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AIR - AAR Corp.
$112.77
0.65 (0.58%)
▲
5d:
-10.13%
30d:
-18.97%
90d:
-16.39%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Sep 29, 2026
7d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AIR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: AIR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$180.60
Based on 9.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$112.14
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AIR is currently trading at $112.77, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $119.82 to $140.84. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 20.2) is in line with its historical norms (21.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 32.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AIR is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $110.36. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AIR scores 33/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (25th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $145.20 (+28.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AIR is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $110.36. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AIR scores 33/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (25th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $145.20 (+28.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$119.82 -
$140.84
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
25th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
65.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AIR? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 25th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (33/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 28.8% below Wall St target ($145.20)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-10.1%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$119.82 -
$140.84
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$8.05
(7.1%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$110.36
Resistance Level
$130.92
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.17
Wall Street Target
$145.20
(+28.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
23.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
32.3%
Profit Margin
5.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
20.2 vs 21.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$111.08
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$109.41
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$107.77
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→21)
$112.72
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 13.9%)
$167.07
(+48%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 13.9%)
$166.85
(+48%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 13.9%)
$141.82
(+26%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.11 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.65
Bull Case
$148.26
(+32%)
Analyst growth 20.2%, PE expands to 26.5
Base Case
$134.78
(+20%)
Market implied 20.2%, PE stable at 24.1
Bear Case
$76.24
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 20.2 to 21.1
Stabilization Target:
$117.95
(+4.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 21, 2026 9:42 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:42 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:42 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is AIR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
John Mcclain Holmes III
SELL
26175 shares
2026-03-27
John Mcclain Holmes III
SELL
60000 shares
2026-03-26
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Advanced AIR Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AIR price and gamma walls.
