AMERISAFE (AMSF) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AMSF - AMERISAFE, Inc.
$25.23
-0.13 (-0.49%)
▼
5d:
+2.37%
30d:
+2.71%
90d:
-16.58%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 20, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
6d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AMSF shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AMSF shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$37.50
Based on 4.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$23.28
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AMSF is currently trading at $25.23, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $23.82 to $25.04. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 12.6) compared to its historical average (15.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 6.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMSF is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $25.78. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AMSF scores 30/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $33.33 (+31.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMSF is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $25.78. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AMSF scores 30/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $33.33 (+31.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$23.82 -
$25.04
Company Quality Score
37/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
42.3%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AMSF? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (30/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 31.5% below Wall St target ($33.33)
- WARNING: Composite score 37/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$23.82 -
$25.04
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.67
(6.6%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$23.55
Resistance Level
$25.78
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 20, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.57
Wall Street Target
$33.33
(+31.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
6.8%
Profit Margin
14.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.6 vs 15.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$23.83
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$22.40
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$21.06
(-17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→15)
$25.29
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 4.5%)
$45.70
(+80%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.6, Growth: 4.5%)
$28.92
(+14%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.7, Growth: 4.5%)
$24.58
(-3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 10.22 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.48
Bull Case
$22.67
(-11%)
Analyst growth -18.7%, PE expands to 11.2
Base Case
$20.61
(-19%)
Market implied -18.7%, PE stable at 10.2
Bear Case
$17.23
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.6 to 15.1
Stabilization Target:
$30.45
(+20.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+20.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 21, 2026 10:31 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:31 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:31 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AMSF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced AMSF Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AMSF price and gamma walls.
