Arlo Technologies (ARLO) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ARLO - Arlo Technologies, Inc.
$12.16
-0.28 (-2.25%)
▼
5d:
-1.94%
30d:
-8.91%
90d:
-7.88%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 16, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
16d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ARLO trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -6.7% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ARLO trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -6.7% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$20.17
Based on 6.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$12.53
2.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ARLO is currently trading at $12.16, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.29 to $13.45. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 11.9) compared to its historical average (14.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARLO is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $11.62, while resistance sits at $13.00.
Market Sentiment: ARLO scores 77/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.00 (+72.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARLO is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $11.62, while resistance sits at $13.00.
Market Sentiment: ARLO scores 77/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.00 (+72.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$12.29 -
$13.45
Company Quality Score
76/100
(STRONG BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (77/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 72.7% below Wall St target ($21.00)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 77/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$12.29 -
$13.45
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.62
Resistance Level
$13.00
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 16, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.86
Wall Street Target
$21.00
(+72.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
20.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-6.7%
Profit Margin
5.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.9 vs 14.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$11.35
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$10.59
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$9.88
(-19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→15)
$12.16
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 8.3%)
$25.87
(+113%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.9, Growth: 8.3%)
$15.45
(+27%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.1, Growth: 8.3%)
$13.13
(+8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (43x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 42.90 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.29
Bull Case
$27.37
(+125%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 47.2
Base Case
$24.88
(+105%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 42.9
Bear Case
$8.46
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 36.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.9 to 14.6
Stabilization Target:
$14.98
(+23.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+23.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 19, 2026 1:57 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:57 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:57 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ARLO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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