ARLO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ARLO - Arlo Technologies, Inc.
$13.06
0.37 (2.92%)
▲
5d:
+2.75%
30d:
+2.19%
90d:
-12.05%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
Get Alerted When ARLO Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ARLO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ARLO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$25.45
Based on 10.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$15.80
17.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ARLO is currently trading at $13.06, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.64 to $13.33. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.2) compared to its historical average (15.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARLO is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $12.15, while resistance sits at $13.52.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.40 (+63.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARLO is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $12.15, while resistance sits at $13.52.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.40 (+63.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$12.64 -
$13.33
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 63.9% below Wall St target ($21.40)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$12.64 -
$13.33
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$12.15
Resistance Level
$13.52
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.22
Wall Street Target
$21.40
(+63.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
26.3%
Profit Margin
5.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.2 vs 15.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.39
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$11.76
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$11.16
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→16)
$13.09
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 17.6%)
$35.01
(+168%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.2, Growth: 17.6%)
$21.25
(+63%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.2, Growth: 17.6%)
$18.06
(+38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (45x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 45.32 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.28
Bull Case
$27.92
(+114%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 49.9
Base Case
$25.38
(+94%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 45.3
Bear Case
$8.63
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 38.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.2 to 15.5
Stabilization Target:
$15.31
(+17.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+17.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 21, 2026 12:12 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:12 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:12 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is ARLO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
19
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kurtis Joseph Binder
SELL
25000 shares
2026-04-17
Kurtis Joseph Binder
SELL
25000 shares
2026-04-06
Kurtis Joseph Binder
SELL
179419 shares
2026-03-12
Top Rated Building Products & Equipment Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Building Products & Equipment by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
CARR
Carrier Global Corp |
BUY
25 analysts |
$76 | 64 BUY |
|
TT
Trane Technologies plc |
BUY
25 analysts |
$522 | 62 BUY |
|
BLDR
Builders FirstSource Inc |
STRONG BUY
21 analysts |
$97 | 56 HOLD |
|
JCI
Johnson Controls Interna… |
BUY
22 analysts |
$155 | 60 BUY |
|
OC
Owens Corning Inc |
BUY
18 analysts |
$145 | 58 HOLD |
Advanced ARLO Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ARLO price and gamma walls.
