ARLO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ARLO - Arlo Technologies, Inc.
$13.57
0.19 (1.42%)
â˛
5d:
-2.58%
30d:
+2.49%
90d:
+6.18%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 19, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: ARLO is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -4.2% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: ARLO is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -4.2% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$20.86
Based on 6.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$12.95
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ARLO is currently trading at $13.57, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $13.03 to $14.95. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.2) compared to its historical average (15.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARLO is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $13.21. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ARLO scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.00 (+54.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARLO is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $13.21. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ARLO scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.00 (+54.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$13.03 -
$14.95
Company Quality Score
40/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ARLO? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 54.8% below Wall St target ($21.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 40/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$13.03 -
$14.95
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$13.21
Resistance Level
$16.61
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 19, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.23
Wall Street Target
$21.00
(+54.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
20.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-6.7%
Profit Margin
5.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.2 vs 15.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$13.00
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$12.45
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$11.93
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13â15)
$13.62
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 8.3%)
$26.15
(+93%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.2, Growth: 8.3%)
$17.24
(+27%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.2, Growth: 8.3%)
$14.65
(+8%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (48x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 47.79 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.28
Bull Case
$29.44
(+117%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 52.6
Base Case
$26.76
(+97%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 47.8
Bear Case
$9.10
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 40.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.2 to 15.1
Stabilization Target:
$15.49
(+14.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 19, 2026 11:07 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:07 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:07 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ARLO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
9
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kurtis Joseph Binder
SELL
25000 shares
2026-04-17
Kurtis Joseph Binder
SELL
25000 shares
2026-04-06
Kurtis Joseph Binder
SELL
179419 shares
2026-03-12
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ARLO price and gamma walls.
