AXON Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AXON - Axon Enterprise, Inc. Common Stock
$433.04
23.01 (5.61%)
▲
5d:
-2.29%
30d:
+11.08%
90d:
-14.63%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.2/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AXON appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -8.9% annual earnings decline despite 90% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AXON appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -8.9% annual earnings decline despite 90% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$514.75
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$319.62
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AXON is currently trading at $433.04, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $390.37 to $467.08. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 41.0) compared to its historical average (54.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 89.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AXON is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $402.00, while resistance sits at $479.47. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $662.04 (+52.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AXON is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $402.00, while resistance sits at $479.47. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $662.04 (+52.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$390.37 -
$467.08
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+5.6%)
- BULLISH: Trading 52.9% below Wall St target ($662.04)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$390.37 -
$467.08
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$402.00
Resistance Level
$479.47
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
40.96
Wall Street Target
$662.04
(+52.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
33.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
89.8%
Profit Margin
6.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
41.0 vs 54.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$394.50
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$359.39
(-17%)
3-Year Target
$327.40
(-24%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 41→54)
$433.28
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 41.0, Growth: 37.5%)
$1126.15
(+160%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 37.5%)
$598.88
(+38%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 37.5%)
$509.05
(+18%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (51x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (41x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 50.76 | Forward EPS (Implied): $8.53
Bull Case
$522.90
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 53.3
Base Case
$433.04
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 50.8
Bear Case
$331.28
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 45.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 41.0 to 54.2
Stabilization Target:
$573.08
(+32.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+32.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 4:30 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:30 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:30 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AXON showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Jeri Williams
SELL
157 shares
2026-03-17
Erika Nardini
SELL
198 shares
2026-03-17
Jennifer H Mak
SELL
1500 shares
2026-03-02
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