BWXT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BWXT - BWX Technologies, Inc.
$177.14
-8.86 (-4.76%)
▼
5d:
-10.03%
30d:
-3.2%
90d:
-22.84%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
19d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 5.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: BWXT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: BWXT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$182.27
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$113.18
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BWXT is currently trading at $177.14, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $185.16 to $202.39. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 34.1) compared to its historical average (41.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 20.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BWXT is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $176.03. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: BWXT has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $238.79 (+34.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BWXT is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $176.03. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: BWXT has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $238.79 (+34.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$185.16 -
$202.39
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
32th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
55.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding BWXT? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 32th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.8%)
- BULLISH: Trading 34.8% below Wall St target ($238.79)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-10.0%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$185.16 -
$202.39
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$13.06
(7.4%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$176.03
Resistance Level
$199.31
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
34.12
Wall Street Target
$238.79
(+34.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
26.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
20.7%
Profit Margin
10.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
34.1 vs 41.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$165.80
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$155.19
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$145.26
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 34→42)
$177.09
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 34.1, Growth: 10.1%)
$236.68
(+34%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 10.1%)
$151.08
(-15%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 10.1%)
$128.41
(-28%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (49x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (34x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 49.47 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.76
Bull Case
$282.49
(+60%)
Analyst growth 38.1%, PE expands to 54.4
Base Case
$256.81
(+45%)
Market implied 38.1%, PE stable at 49.5
Bear Case
$126.48
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 42.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 34.1 to 41.6
Stabilization Target:
$215.96
(+21.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+21.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 2:47 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:47 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:47 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BWXT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-19
Kevin James Gorman
SELL
1344 shares
2026-03-02
Gerhard F Burbach
SELL
1983 shares
2026-02-25
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