BWXT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BWXT - BWX Technologies, Inc.
$173.79
5.09 (3.02%)
▲
5d:
-1.55%
30d:
-9.04%
90d:
-19.66%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 5.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: BWXT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 6.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: BWXT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 6.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$183.21
Based on 7.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$113.76
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BWXT is currently trading at $173.79, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $169.32 to $191.31. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 33.5) compared to its historical average (40.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 20.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BWXT is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $157.10, while resistance sits at $181.54. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: BWXT has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $238.16 (+37.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BWXT is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $157.10, while resistance sits at $181.54. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: BWXT has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $238.16 (+37.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$169.32 -
$191.31
Company Quality Score
46/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
41th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
63.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 41th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.0%)
- BULLISH: Trading 37.0% below Wall St target ($238.16)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$169.32 -
$191.31
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$13.87
(8.0%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$157.10
Resistance Level
$181.54
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
33.46
Wall Street Target
$238.16
(+37.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
26.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
20.7%
Profit Margin
10.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
33.5 vs 40.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$162.67
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$152.26
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$142.51
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 33→41)
$173.78
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 33.5, Growth: 10.3%)
$233.12
(+34%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.7, Growth: 10.3%)
$144.43
(-17%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.6, Growth: 10.3%)
$122.77
(-29%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (44x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (33x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 44.28 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.74
Bull Case
$252.97
(+50%)
Analyst growth 38.9%, PE expands to 48.7
Base Case
$229.97
(+36%)
Market implied 38.9%, PE stable at 44.3
Bear Case
$112.60
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 37.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 33.5 to 40.8
Stabilization Target:
$211.92
(+21.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+21.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 5:07 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:07 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:07 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BWXT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-19
Kevin James Gorman
SELL
1344 shares
2026-03-02
Gerhard F Burbach
SELL
1983 shares
2026-02-25
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