Is CF stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, CF is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CF shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of CF stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for CF to be between $117.30 and $124.48. The current price is $125.70.

What is the analyst price target for CF?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for CF is $125.25. This implies a potential upside of -0.4% from current levels.

CF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

CF - CF Industries Holding, Inc.

AGRICULTURAL CHEMICALS

$125.70

6.68 (5.61%) ▲

5d: +7.39%

30d: -1.3%

90d: +1.95%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

Protect Your CF Gains

Analysis Updated: Aug 20, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Aug 05, 2026 0d

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 7, 2026 at $114.35 · last confirmed Aug 19, 2026

Strength: 4.9/10

Get Alerted When CF Hits Your Target Price

Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move

You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.

100% Free No spam, ever Unsubscribe anytime

Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

Loading historical data...

💡

Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CF shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: -29.3%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$63.12

Based on -12.7% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$39.20

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.2x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: CF is currently trading at $125.70, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $117.30 to $124.48. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.8) is in line with its historical norms (12.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 99.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, CF is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $129.18. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.6% recently.

Market Sentiment: CF scores 33/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Historical Trading Range $117.30 - $124.48

Company Quality Score 45/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 28.6%

Protect Your Profits

Holding CF? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.

View Profit Protection Plan

All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (33/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+5.6%)
NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($125.25)
WARNING: Composite score 45/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $117.30 - $124.48

Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $111.89

Resistance Level $129.18

Current Trend Downtrend

Technical data as of Aug 20, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 11.80

Wall Street Target $125.25 (-0.4%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 17.6%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 99.6%

Profit Margin 27.1%

Valuation Discount vs History -1.0% cheaper

PE vs Historical 11.8 vs 12.2 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -1.0% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $124.44 (-1%)

2-Year Target $123.20 (-2%)

3-Year Target $121.97 (-3%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 12→12) $126.13 (+0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.1, Growth: -29.3%) $155.90 (+24%)

Base: (SPY PE: 11.8, Growth: -29.3%) $91.64 (-27%)

Bear: (PE: 10.0, Growth: -29.3%) $77.89 (-38%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

Trailing PE: 8.83 | Current EPS (TTM): $13.48

Bull Case $103.49 (-18%)

Analyst growth -21.0%, PE expands to 9.7

Base Case $94.08 (-25%)

Market implied -21.0%, PE stable at 8.8

Bear Case $80.93 (-36%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.5

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.8 to 12.2

Stabilization Target: $129.99 (+3.4%)

PE Expansion Potential: +3.4%

Share & Embed Analysis

Found this analysis useful? Share it with your community or embed the live chart on your blog.

Tweet Reddit

bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.

Last updated: August 20, 2026 8:36 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:36 PM

🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now

Ticker	Score	Recommendation	Change %

See Full Scanner Results »

Technical Signals Check

Is CF showing a specific setup today?

RSI Divergence Check TTM Squeeze Check MACD Crossover Check Gamma Walls Check Unusual Activity Check

Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

Sells

Net

INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Erik M Mayer SELL 1500 shares 2026-03-17

Richard A Hoker SELL 3499 shares 2026-03-17

Bert A Frost SELL 6000 shares 2026-03-17

View Insider Activity Scanner

Unlock Insider Activity

See real-time buying/selling by company executives for CF.

Create Free Account

Already have an account? Log In

Top Rated Agricultural Inputs Stocks

Top-rated stocks in Agricultural Inputs by analyst ratings.

Stock	Analyst Consensus	Analyst Target	Tradestie Score
CTVA Corteva Inc	STRONG BUY 24 analysts	$92	57 HOLD
NTR Nutrien Ltd	STRONG BUY 24 analysts	$76	38 SELL
MOS The Mosaic Company	BUY 20 analysts	$28	48 HOLD
SMG Scotts Miracle-Gro Compa…	STRONG BUY 11 analysts	$77	67 BUY
FMC FMC Corporation	HOLD 20 analysts	$14	58 HOLD

MOS The Mosaic Company

48 HOLD

SMG Scotts Miracle-Gr…

67 BUY

FMC FMC Corporation

58 HOLD

Advanced CF Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CF price and gamma walls.

Iron Condor Bull Call Bear Put Collar

More Analysis for CF

CF Technical Chart CF Price Prediction CF Earnings Date CF Investment Advisor CF Fair Price Analyzer CF Options Advisor CF Options Chain CF Options Analysis CF Competitors

Compare CF with Peers

CF vs MOS
Which one to buy?

CF vs NTR
Which one to buy?

CF vs BG
Which one to buy?

CF vs FMC
Which one to buy?

CF vs IPI
Which one to buy?

CF vs CTVA
Winner: Tie

UAN vs CF

CF vs BG
Winner: CF

CF vs IPI

CMP vs CF

Create New Comparison View All Competitors

Tradestie