Is CF stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, CF is currently a HOLD with moderate confidence. 📊 HOLD: CF shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of CF stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for CF to be between $113.51 and $128.21. The current price is $118.51.

What is the analyst price target for CF?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for CF is $127.69. This implies a potential upside of 7.7% from current levels.

CF Industries (CF) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

CF - CF Industries Holding, Inc.

AGRICULTURAL CHEMICALS

$118.51

-2.34 (-1.94%) ▼

5d: +3.43%

30d: -7.2%

90d: -3.62%

HOLD

MODERATE Confidence

Protect Your CF Gains

Analysis Updated: Oct 19, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Nov 04, 2026 14d

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Oct 12, 2026 at $114.94 · last confirmed Oct 19, 2026

Strength: 6.5/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CF shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: -26.3%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$71.79

Based on -11.2% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$44.58

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: CF is currently trading at $118.51, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $113.51 to $128.21. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 10.6) compared to its historical average (12.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 99.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, CF is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $121.99. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 52/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position FAIR

Historical Trading Range $113.51 - $128.21

Company Quality Score 56/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 67.6%

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All Signals

NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (52/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($127.69)
NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (52/100) — watch for confirmation

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $113.51 - $128.21

Current vs Trading Range FAIR

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $110.61

Resistance Level $121.99

Current Trend Downtrend

Technical data as of Oct 19, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 10.57

Wall Street Target $127.69 (+7.7%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 17.6%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 99.6%

Profit Margin 27.1%

Valuation Discount vs History -4.2% cheaper

PE vs Historical 10.6 vs 12.0 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -4.2% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $113.53 (-4%)

2-Year Target $108.76 (-8%)

3-Year Target $104.20 (-12%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 11→12) $118.27 (0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 19.9, Growth: -26.3%) $162.29 (+37%)

Base: (SPY PE: 10.6, Growth: -26.3%) $86.39 (-27%)

Bear: (PE: 9.0, Growth: -26.3%) $73.43 (-38%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

Trailing PE: 8.97 | Current EPS (TTM): $13.48

Bull Case $110.54 (-7%)

Analyst growth -16.8%, PE expands to 9.9

Base Case $100.50 (-15%)

Market implied -16.8%, PE stable at 9.0

Bear Case $82.18 (-31%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.6

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.6 to 12.0

Stabilization Target: $134.52 (+13.5%)

PE Expansion Potential: +13.5%

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Last updated: October 19, 2026 11:26 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:26 AM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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Advanced CF Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CF price and gamma walls.

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