FDX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FDX - FedEx Corporation
$335.74
-3.01 (-0.89%)
▼
5d:
+1.2%
30d:
-10.66%
90d:
-5.33%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 16, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 23, 2026
5d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 8.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: FDX is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: FDX is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$296.36
Based on -0.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$184.02
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FDX is currently trading at $335.74, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $332.81 to $392.51. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 17.8) compared to its historical average (16.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FDX is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $321.81, while resistance sits at $413.87.
Market Sentiment: FDX has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FDX is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $321.81, while resistance sits at $413.87.
Market Sentiment: FDX has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$332.81 -
$392.51
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
51.0%
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View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($317.62)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$332.81 -
$392.51
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$321.81
Resistance Level
$413.87
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.77
Wall Street Target
$317.62
(-5.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
17.3%
Profit Margin
4.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.5% premium
PE vs Historical
17.8 vs 16.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$347.49
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$359.65
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$372.24
(+11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$335.19
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -4.7%)
$355.94
(+6%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.8, Growth: -4.7%)
$290.39
(-14%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.1, Growth: -4.7%)
$246.83
(-27%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.09 | Current EPS (TTM): $18.73
Bull Case
$375.91
(+12%)
Analyst growth 0.9%, PE expands to 19.9
Base Case
$341.73
(+2%)
Market implied 0.9%, PE stable at 18.1
Bear Case
$230.35
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 16, 2026 8:52 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:52 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:52 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FDX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Tracy B Brightman
SELL
16959 shares
2026-04-15
Susan C Schwab
SELL
5795 shares
2026-04-15
Gina F Adams
SELL
20450 shares
2026-04-14
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