Fossil Group (FOSL) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FOSL - Fossil Group, Inc.
$7.15
0.15 (2.14%)
▲
5d:
+5.15%
30d:
+59.24%
90d:
+73.54%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 9, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 12, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: FOSL is 13.0% above its trading range ($6.33). Market expects 5.4% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: FOSL is 13.0% above its trading range ($6.33). Market expects 5.4% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FOSL is currently trading at $7.15, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.90 to $6.33. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 55.0) compared to its historical average (46.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.4% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FOSL is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $7.33. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: FOSL scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $9.25 (+29.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FOSL is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $7.33. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: FOSL scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $9.25 (+29.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$4.90 -
$6.33
Company Quality Score
36/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
22.4%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price significantly overextended (+13.0% above its trading range)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 29.4% below Wall St target ($9.25)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 5.4% growth with -4.9% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 36/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$4.90 -
$6.33
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$5.94
Resistance Level
$7.33
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
55.00
Wall Street Target
$9.25
(+29.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-4.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-81.7%
Profit Margin
-7.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.4% premium
PE vs Historical
55.0 vs 46.9
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$7.54
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$7.94
(+11%)
3-Year Target
$8.37
(+17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 55→47)
PE COMPRESSION
$7.14
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 11, 2026 11:56 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:56 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:56 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FOSL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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