FOSL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FOSL - Fossil Group, Inc.
$4.39
0.21 (5.02%)
▲
5d:
+10.86%
30d:
+7.07%
90d:
-7.97%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 12, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 12, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FOSL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FOSL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FOSL is currently trading at $4.39, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.00 to $4.37. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 43.9) is in line with its historical norms (47.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FOSL is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $3.95, while resistance sits at $4.58. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: FOSL has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $7.00 (+59.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FOSL is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $3.95, while resistance sits at $4.58. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: FOSL has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $7.00 (+59.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$4.00 -
$4.37
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+5.0%)
- BULLISH: Trading 59.5% below Wall St target ($7.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$4.00 -
$4.37
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.57
(13.1%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$3.95
Resistance Level
$4.59
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
43.90
Wall Street Target
$7.00
(+59.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-3.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-81.7%
Profit Margin
-6.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
43.9 vs 47.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$4.29
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$4.19
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$4.09
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 44→47)
$4.39
(+0%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 43.9 to 47.1
Stabilization Target:
$4.71
(+7.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 13, 2026 9:05 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:05 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:05 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FOSL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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