HMY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HMY - Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited
$19.44
0.18 (0.93%)
▲
5d:
-1.32%
30d:
+31.53%
90d:
+11.92%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 27, 2026
11d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: HMY shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: HMY shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$37.61
Based on 12.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$23.35
16.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HMY is currently trading at $19.44, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $14.68 to $18.25. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 5.8) is in line with its historical norms (6.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 22.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HMY is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $15.88, while resistance sits at $20.22.
Market Sentiment: HMY scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HMY is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $15.88, while resistance sits at $20.22.
Market Sentiment: HMY scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$14.68 -
$18.25
Company Quality Score
32/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
19.0%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+6.5% above its trading range)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($20.73)
- WARNING: Composite score 32/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$14.68 -
$18.25
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$15.88
Resistance Level
$20.22
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Aug 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.82
Wall Street Target
$20.73
(+6.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
19.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
22.7%
Profit Margin
20.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.8 vs 6.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$19.03
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$18.63
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$18.24
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→6)
$19.43
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 21.7%)
$121.86
(+527%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.8, Growth: 21.7%)
$35.06
(+80%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.9, Growth: 21.7%)
$29.80
(+53%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.51 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.54
Bull Case
$42.37
(+118%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 13.8
Base Case
$38.52
(+98%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 12.5
Bear Case
$13.10
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.8 to 6.2
Stabilization Target:
$20.71
(+6.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 15, 2026 9:17 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:17 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:17 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is HMY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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