HMY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HMY - Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited
$17.60
0.08 (0.46%)
▲
5d:
+17.18%
30d:
+12.03%
90d:
+10.9%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 27, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HMY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 7.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HMY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 7.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$36.01
Based on 10.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.36
21.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HMY is currently trading at $17.60, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $15.86 to $18.01. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.3) compared to its historical average (6.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 22.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HMY is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $14.48, while resistance sits at $18.64.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $23.01 (+31.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HMY is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $14.48, while resistance sits at $18.64.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $23.01 (+31.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$15.86 -
$18.01
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
65.2%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 31.3% below Wall St target ($23.01)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$15.86 -
$18.01
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$14.48
Resistance Level
$18.64
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.28
Wall Street Target
$23.01
(+31.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
19.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
22.7%
Profit Margin
20.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.3 vs 6.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$16.17
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$14.93
(-15%)
3-Year Target
$13.78
(-21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5→7)
$17.49
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 16.4%)
$114.15
(+552%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.3, Growth: 16.4%)
$27.66
(+58%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.5, Growth: 16.4%)
$23.51
(+34%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (5x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.23 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.55
Bull Case
$34.89
(+99%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 11.3
Base Case
$31.72
(+81%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 10.2
Bear Case
$10.78
(-38%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.3 to 6.7
Stabilization Target:
$22.24
(+27.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+27.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 16, 2026 9:48 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:48 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:48 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HMY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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