Harmony Gold Mining (HMY) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HMY - Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited
$16.22
-0.50 (-2.96%)
▼
5d:
-1.67%
30d:
-17.02%
90d:
+9.71%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 27, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: HMY shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: HMY shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$37.00
Based on 12.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.98
29.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HMY is currently trading at $16.21, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $17.23 to $19.96. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.0) compared to its historical average (6.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 198.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HMY is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $16.09. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $22.19 (+32.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HMY is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $16.09. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $22.19 (+32.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$17.23 -
$19.96
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (43/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 32.8% below Wall St target ($22.19)
- WARNING: Composite score 49/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$17.23 -
$19.96
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$16.09
Resistance Level
$18.14
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.00
Wall Street Target
$22.19
(+32.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
49.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
198.8%
Profit Margin
29.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.0 vs 6.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$15.61
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$14.58
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$13.61
(-19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5→6)
$16.60
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 21.7%)
$119.64
(+616%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.0, Growth: 21.7%)
$30.14
(+80%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.3, Growth: 21.7%)
$25.62
(+53%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (6x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (5x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 6.09 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.74
Bull Case
$22.37
(+34%)
Analyst growth 21.9%, PE expands to 6.7
Base Case
$20.33
(+22%)
Market implied 21.9%, PE stable at 6.1
Bear Case
$11.34
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.0 to 6.1
Stabilization Target:
$20.37
(+21.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+21.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 14, 2026 11:40 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:40 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:40 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HMY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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