Howmet Aerospace (HWM) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HWM - Howmet Aerospace Inc.
$227.37
-2.30 (-1.00%)
▼
5d:
+0.11%
30d:
-16.91%
90d:
-18.9%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: HWM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: HWM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$289.48
Based on 12.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$179.74
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HWM is currently trading at $227.37, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $231.73 to $277.03. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 35.2) compared to its historical average (44.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 33.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HWM is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $223.03. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: HWM scores 68/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $337.74 (+48.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HWM is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $223.03. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: HWM scores 68/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $337.74 (+48.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$231.73 -
$277.03
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding HWM? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (68/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 48.5% below Wall St target ($337.74)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 23% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$231.73 -
$277.03
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$223.03
Resistance Level
$246.50
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
35.21
Wall Street Target
$337.74
(+48.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
24.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
33.0%
Profit Margin
20.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
35.2 vs 44.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$209.86
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$193.70
(-15%)
3-Year Target
$178.79
(-21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 35→45)
$227.50
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 35.2, Growth: 21.1%)
$403.37
(+77%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 21.1%)
$232.00
(+2%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.2, Growth: 21.1%)
$197.20
(-13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (50x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (35x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 49.50 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.64
Bull Case
$351.62
(+55%)
Analyst growth 39.2%, PE expands to 54.5
Base Case
$319.65
(+41%)
Market implied 39.2%, PE stable at 49.5
Bear Case
$156.18
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 42.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 35.2 to 44.8
Stabilization Target:
$289.31
(+27.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+27.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 22, 2026 3:43 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:43 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:43 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HWM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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