MHO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MHO - M/I Homes, Inc.
$160.27
-1.07 (-0.66%)
▼
5d:
+7.82%
30d:
+21.77%
90d:
+35.1%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 29, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 22, 2026
21d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MHO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 7.5% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MHO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 7.5% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$235.58
Based on 12.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$146.28
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MHO is currently trading at $160.27, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $133.33 to $153.05. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 10.6) compared to its historical average (8.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 7.5% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MHO is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $142.20. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MHO has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (5th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MHO is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $142.20. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MHO has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (5th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$133.33 -
$153.05
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
5th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.1%
Protect Your Profits
MHO is technically overbought (RSI 75). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 5th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($163.33)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 7.5% growth with -5.7% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$133.33 -
$153.05
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$7.52
(4.7%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$130.93
Resistance Level
$142.20
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.60
Wall Street Target
$163.33
(+1.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-5.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-35.9%
Profit Margin
8.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+7.5% premium
PE vs Historical
10.6 vs 8.5
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+7.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$173.44
(+8%)
2-Year Target
$186.45
(+16%)
3-Year Target
$200.43
(+24%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$160.80
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 21.8%)
$599.57
(+272%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.6, Growth: 21.8%)
$291.67
(+81%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.5, Growth: 21.8%)
$233.99
(+45%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.24 | Current EPS (TTM): $13.32
Bull Case
$204.98
(+27%)
Analyst growth 14.3%, PE expands to 13.5
Base Case
$186.34
(+16%)
Market implied 14.3%, PE stable at 12.2
Bear Case
$110.84
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 30, 2026 10:16 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:16 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:16 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MHO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ann Marie Hunker
SELL
132 shares
2026-02-12
Phillip G Creek
SELL
8616 shares
2026-02-12
Robert H Schottenstein
SELL
14974 shares
2026-02-12
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Advanced MHO Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MHO price and gamma walls.