MLI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MLI - Mueller Industries, Inc.
$63.22
1.26 (2.03%)
â˛
5d:
-4.07%
30d:
+0.14%
90d:
-52.67%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 20, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: MLI is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -0.8% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: MLI is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -0.8% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$79.44
Based on 4.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$49.33
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MLI is currently trading at $63.22, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $60.60 to $68.10. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.4) is in line with its historical norms (14.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 1.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MLI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $61.60. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MLI scores 18/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $80.00 (+26.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MLI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $61.60. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MLI scores 18/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $80.00 (+26.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$60.60 -
$68.10
Company Quality Score
34/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
50.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (18/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 26.5% below Wall St target ($80.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 34/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$60.60 -
$68.10
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$61.60
Resistance Level
$69.95
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.43
Wall Street Target
$80.00
(+26.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
25.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1.8%
Profit Margin
18.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.4 vs 14.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$62.71
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$62.21
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$61.71
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14â15)
$63.28
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 4.3%)
$99.70
(+58%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.4, Growth: 4.3%)
$71.70
(+13%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.3, Growth: 4.3%)
$60.95
(-4%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.35 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.79
Bull Case
$78.77
(+25%)
Analyst growth 15.6%, PE expands to 18.0
Base Case
$71.61
(+13%)
Market implied 15.6%, PE stable at 16.4
Bear Case
$42.13
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.4 to 14.8
Stabilization Target:
$64.82
(+2.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 6:07 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:07 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:07 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MLI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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