Mueller Industries (MLI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MLI - Mueller Industries, Inc.
$57.54
0.73 (1.28%)
▲
5d:
-5.28%
30d:
-3.94%
90d:
-8.85%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 20, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MLI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MLI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$99.58
Based on 8.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$61.83
6.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MLI is currently trading at $57.54, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $59.28 to $61.78. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 12.4) compared to its historical average (14.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 1.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MLI is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $54.17, while resistance sits at $61.90.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 46/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $80.00 (+39.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MLI is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $54.17, while resistance sits at $61.90.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 46/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $80.00 (+39.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$59.28 -
$61.78
Company Quality Score
39/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (46/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 39.0% below Wall St target ($80.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 39/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$59.28 -
$61.78
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$54.17
Resistance Level
$61.90
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.37
Wall Street Target
$80.00
(+39.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
25.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1.8%
Profit Margin
18.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.4 vs 14.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$54.43
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$51.49
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$48.71
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→15)
$57.48
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 12.0%)
$129.91
(+126%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.4, Growth: 12.0%)
$80.94
(+41%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.5, Growth: 12.0%)
$68.80
(+20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.82 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.59
Bull Case
$80.94
(+41%)
Analyst growth 29.5%, PE expands to 17.4
Base Case
$73.58
(+28%)
Market implied 29.5%, PE stable at 15.8
Bear Case
$38.63
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.4 to 14.6
Stabilization Target:
$67.89
(+18.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+18.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 6:35 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:35 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:35 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MLI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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