MOS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MOS - The Mosaic Company
$22.90
0.39 (1.73%)
▲
5d:
+8.58%
30d:
+7.01%
90d:
-12.6%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MOS shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.4% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MOS shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.4% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$37.89
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$23.53
2.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MOS is currently trading at $22.90, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $21.41 to $23.28. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 12.5) compared to its historical average (10.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MOS is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $20.75, while resistance sits at $24.50.
Market Sentiment: MOS has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $26.61 (+16.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MOS is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $20.75, while resistance sits at $24.50.
Market Sentiment: MOS has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $26.61 (+16.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$21.41 -
$23.28
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($26.61)
- NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 5.4% growth expectation is conservative given 240% recent growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$21.41 -
$23.28
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$20.76
Resistance Level
$24.50
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.48
Wall Street Target
$26.61
(+16.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
239.5%
Profit Margin
0.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.4% premium
PE vs Historical
12.5 vs 10.6
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$24.14
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$25.44
(+11%)
3-Year Target
$26.81
(+17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$22.78
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 110.6%)
$134.92
(+489%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.5, Growth: 110.6%)
$77.29
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.6, Growth: 110.6%)
$65.67
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 21.23 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.08
Bull Case
$27.65
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 22.3
Base Case
$22.90
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 21.2
Bear Case
$17.52
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 19.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 21, 2026 5:10 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:10 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:10 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MOS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
1
Sells
+
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-23
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-01-29
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
BUY
2026-01-09
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