The Mosaic (MOS) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MOS - The Mosaic Company
$17.92
-0.90 (-4.78%)
▼
5d:
-4.93%
30d:
-26.8%
90d:
-18.43%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 19, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
14d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MOS shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MOS shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$34.43
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$21.38
16.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MOS is currently trading at $17.92, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $19.57 to $24.57. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.8) is in line with its historical norms (11.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MOS is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $17.86. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $26.27 (+46.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MOS is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $17.86. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $26.27 (+46.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$19.57 -
$24.57
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
75.7%
Protect Your Profits
Holding MOS? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.8%)
- BULLISH: Trading 46.6% below Wall St target ($26.27)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 49/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$19.57 -
$24.57
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$17.86
Resistance Level
$21.50
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 19, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.76
Wall Street Target
$26.27
(+46.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-6.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
239.5%
Profit Margin
-5.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.4% premium
PE vs Historical
11.8 vs 11.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$17.99
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$18.06
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$18.14
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$17.89
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 317.4%)
$102.15
(+470%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.8, Growth: 317.4%)
$60.48
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.0, Growth: 317.4%)
$51.41
(+187%)
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 19, 2026 6:16 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:16 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:16 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MOS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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