Is MPC stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, MPC is currently a HOLD with low confidence. 📊 HOLD: MPC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of MPC stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for MPC to be between $248.46 and $262.64. The current price is $241.66.

What is the analyst price target for MPC?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for MPC is $268.17. This implies a potential upside of 10.4% from current levels.

MPC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

MPC - MARATHON PETROLEUM CORPORATION

PETROLEUM REFINING

$241.66

-1.25 (-0.51%) ▼

5d: -8.32%

30d: -6.47%

90d: +3.93%

HOLD

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Jun 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Aug 04, 2026

Smart Money Accumulation

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Strength: 9.0/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MPC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: -18.4%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$211.73

Based on -7.2% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$131.47

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.9x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: MPC is currently trading at $241.66, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $248.46 to $262.64. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 10.0) compared to its historical average (12.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 350.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, MPC is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $241.36. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $268.17 (+10.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD

Historical Trading Range $248.46 - $262.64

Company Quality Score 58/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 77.1%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($268.17)
CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -8.3% 5-day decline

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $248.46 - $262.64

Current vs Trading Range OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $241.36

Resistance Level $272.46

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Jun 9, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 10.00

Wall Street Target $268.17 (+10.4%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 8.8%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 350.7%

Profit Margin 3.4%

Valuation Discount vs History -8.1% cheaper

PE vs Historical 10.0 vs 12.9 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -8.1% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $223.23 (-8%)

2-Year Target $205.15 (-16%)

3-Year Target $188.53 (-22%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 10→13) $243.19 (+0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 21.8, Growth: -18.4%) $385.65 (+59%)

Base: (SPY PE: 10.0, Growth: -18.4%) $177.08 (-27%)

Bear: (PE: 8.5, Growth: -18.4%) $150.52 (-38%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 16.11 | Current EPS (TTM): $15.18

Bull Case $430.54 (+77%)

Analyst growth 60.0%, PE expands to 17.7

Base Case $391.40 (+61%)

Market implied 60.0%, PE stable at 16.1

Bear Case $166.34 (-32%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.7

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.0 to 12.9

Stabilization Target: $313.33 (+29.0%)

PE Expansion Potential: +29.0%

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Last updated: June 22, 2026 10:33 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:33 AM

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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Ricky D Hessling SELL 1626 shares 2026-03-13

Ricky D Hessling SELL 1037 shares 2026-03-12

Ricky D Hessling SELL 1810 shares 2026-03-11

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