MPC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MPC - MARATHON PETROLEUM CORPORATION
$362.88
4.65 (1.30%)
▲
5d:
+2.1%
30d:
+16.21%
90d:
+46.07%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 20, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Aug 6, 2026 at $312.56 · last confirmed Aug 19, 2026
Strength: 6.9/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MPC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MPC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$158.34
Based on -15.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$98.32
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MPC is currently trading at $362.88, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $299.46 to $343.50. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 11.1) compared to its historical average (12.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 348.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MPC is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $367.60. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MPC scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $320.22. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MPC is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $367.60. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MPC scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $320.22. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$299.46 -
$343.50
Company Quality Score
38/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
14.3%
Protect Your Profits
MPC is technically overbought (RSI 71). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+5.6% above its trading range)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 10.6% above Wall St target ($320.22)
- WARNING: Composite score 38/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$299.46 -
$343.50
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$290.36
Resistance Level
$367.60
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 20, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.12
Wall Street Target
$320.22
(-10.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
53.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
348.0%
Profit Margin
5.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.1 vs 12.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$343.54
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$329.46
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$315.95
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→13)
$357.85
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: -35.9%)
$471.15
(+32%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.1, Growth: -35.9%)
$261.15
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.5, Growth: -35.9%)
$221.98
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.69 | Current EPS (TTM): $28.43
Bull Case
$449.47
(+26%)
Analyst growth 13.3%, PE expands to 14.0
Base Case
$408.61
(+14%)
Market implied 13.3%, PE stable at 12.7
Bear Case
$245.31
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.1 to 12.6
Stabilization Target:
$405.74
(+13.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+13.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 21, 2026 11:14 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:14 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:14 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MPC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ricky D Hessling
SELL
1626 shares
2026-03-13
Ricky D Hessling
SELL
1037 shares
2026-03-12
Ricky D Hessling
SELL
1810 shares
2026-03-11
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