Is MPC stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, MPC is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MPC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of MPC stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for MPC to be between $393.04 and $458.14. The current price is $469.02.

What is the analyst price target for MPC?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for MPC is $442.33. This implies a potential upside of -6.6% from current levels.

MARATHON PETROLEUM (MPC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

MPC - MARATHON PETROLEUM CORPORATION

PETROLEUM REFINING

$469.02

-4.67 (-0.99%) ▼

5d: -1.67%

30d: +16.56%

90d: +48.51%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Oct 19, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Nov 03, 2026 13d

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MPC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: -12.2%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$544.07

Based on -4.1% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$337.82

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.1x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: MPC is currently trading at $469.02, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $393.04 to $458.14. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.5) compared to its historical average (12.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 11.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 348.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, MPC is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $427.20, while resistance sits at $493.98.

Market Sentiment: MPC scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Historical Trading Range $393.04 - $458.14

Company Quality Score 29/100 (SELL)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 21.4%

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All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($442.33)
WARNING: Composite score 29/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $393.04 - $458.14

Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $427.20

Resistance Level $493.98

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Oct 19, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 8.47

Wall Street Target $442.33 (-6.6%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 53.7%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 348.0%

Profit Margin 5.5%

Valuation Discount vs History -11.2% cheaper

PE vs Historical 8.5 vs 12.1 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -11.2% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $426.32 (-10%)

2-Year Target $383.69 (-19%)

3-Year Target $345.32 (-27%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 8→12) $493.37 (+4%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 19.9, Growth: -12.2%) $809.77 (+71%)

Base: (SPY PE: 8.5, Growth: -12.2%) $345.32 (-27%)

Bear: (PE: 7.2, Growth: -12.2%) $293.52 (-38%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 16.55 | Current EPS (TTM): $28.88

Bull Case $1018.46 (+115%)

Analyst growth 93.7%, PE expands to 18.2

Base Case $925.87 (+96%)

Market implied 93.7%, PE stable at 16.6

Bear Case $325.09 (-31%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.1

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.5 to 12.1

Stabilization Target: $676.77 (+42.9%)

PE Expansion Potential: +42.9%

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Last updated: October 20, 2026 11:37 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:37 PM

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