MUSA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MUSA - MURPHY USA INC.
$503.19
-5.89 (-1.16%)
▼
5d:
-11.68%
30d:
-18.33%
90d:
-0.56%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 28, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: MUSA is down 11.7% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: MUSA is down 11.7% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$436.48
Based on -4.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$271.02
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MUSA is currently trading at $503.19, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $539.79 to $607.61. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.4) is in line with its historical norms (17.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 53.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MUSA is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $501.12. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MUSA scores 33/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $622.70 (+23.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MUSA is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $501.12. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MUSA scores 33/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $622.70 (+23.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$539.79 -
$607.61
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
65.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding MUSA? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (33/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 23.8% below Wall St target ($622.70)
- WARNING: Composite score 47/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$539.79 -
$607.61
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$21.99
(4.4%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$501.12
Resistance Level
$595.29
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 28, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.40
Wall Street Target
$622.70
(+23.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
40.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
53.1%
Profit Margin
3.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.4 vs 17.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$490.61
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$478.34
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$466.39
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→18)
$503.24
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: -12.2%)
$448.81
(+-11%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.4, Growth: -12.2%)
$366.83
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.9, Growth: -12.2%)
$311.80
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 15.57 | Current EPS (TTM): $32.70
Bull Case
$525.31
(+4%)
Analyst growth -6.2%, PE expands to 17.1
Base Case
$477.55
(-5%)
Market implied -6.2%, PE stable at 15.6
Bear Case
$346.17
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.4 to 17.7
Stabilization Target:
$542.95
(+7.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 29, 2026 6:58 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:58 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:58 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is MUSA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Scott G Woodward
SELL
137 shares
2026-03-05
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Advanced MUSA Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MUSA price and gamma walls.
