NPK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NPK - National Presto Industries, Inc.
$139.26
1.03 (0.75%)
▲
5d:
-0.22%
30d:
+13.45%
90d:
+2.53%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 12, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 14, 2026
TODAY
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NPK shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NPK shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$36.15
Based on 10.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.45
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NPK is currently trading at $139.26, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $120.37 to $133.93. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 160.1) is in line with its historical norms (146.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.0% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NPK is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $141.87. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NPK scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $18.93. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NPK is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $141.87. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NPK scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $18.93. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$120.37 -
$133.93
Company Quality Score
27/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
22.4%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 86.4% above Wall St target ($18.93)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 3.0% growth with 14.5% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 27/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$120.37 -
$133.93
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$119.70
Resistance Level
$141.87
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 12, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
160.07
Wall Street Target
$18.93
(-86.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-13.2%
Profit Margin
6.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.0% premium
PE vs Historical
160.1 vs 146.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$143.44
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$147.74
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$152.17
(+9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 160→146)
PE COMPRESSION
$139.18
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 160.1, Growth: 17.6%)
$226.30
(+63%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 17.6%)
$28.60
(-80%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.2, Growth: 17.6%)
$24.31
(-83%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 30.72 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.50
Bull Case
$76.03
(-45%)
Analyst growth -50.0%, PE expands to 33.8
Base Case
$69.12
(-50%)
Market implied -50.0%, PE stable at 30.7
Bear Case
$94.00
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 26.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 12, 2026 7:13 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:13 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:13 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is NPK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Randy F Lieble
SELL
2417 shares
2026-03-11
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