National Presto Industries (NPK) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NPK - National Presto Industries, Inc.
$151.59
-0.42 (-0.28%)
âŧ
5d:
+0.57%
30d:
+2.45%
90d:
+23.24%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 9, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 26, 2026
13d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: NPK is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 4.9% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: NPK is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 4.9% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$0.51
Based on -41.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$0.32
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NPK is currently trading at $151.59, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $146.06 to $152.32. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 174.2) compared to its historical average (151.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NPK is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $154.50. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NPK scores 33/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NPK is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $154.50. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NPK scores 33/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$146.06 -
$152.32
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
38.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (33/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($162.00)
- NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 4.9% growth expectation is conservative given 207% recent growth
- WARNING: Composite score 47/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$146.06 -
$152.32
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$142.64
Resistance Level
$154.50
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
174.24
Wall Street Target
$162.00
(+6.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
21.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
207.0%
Profit Margin
7.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.9% premium
PE vs Historical
174.2 vs 151.1
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$159.02
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$166.81
(+10%)
3-Year Target
$174.98
(+15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 174â151)
PE COMPRESSION
$151.74
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 174.2, Growth: -86.8%)
$110.51
(+-27%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: -86.8%)
$12.60
(-92%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: -86.8%)
$10.71
(-93%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 25.42 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.98
Bull Case
$83.61
(-45%)
Analyst growth -50.0%, PE expands to 28.0
Base Case
$76.00
(-50%)
Market implied -50.0%, PE stable at 25.4
Bear Case
$103.37
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 11, 2026 10:07 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:07 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:07 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NPK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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