ORLY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ORLY - O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.
$89.11
0.03 (0.03%)
â˛
5d:
-2.13%
30d:
+3.48%
90d:
-3.5%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Aug 7, 2026 at $92.30 · last confirmed Aug 17, 2026
Strength: 5.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: ORLY is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -2.3% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: ORLY is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -2.3% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$131.71
Based on 7.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$81.78
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ORLY is currently trading at $89.11, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $86.58 to $92.25. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 24.4) is in line with its historical norms (26.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 10.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ORLY is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $87.19. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 41/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $107.80 (+21.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ORLY is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $87.19. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 41/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $107.80 (+21.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$86.58 -
$92.25
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ORLY? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (41/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.0% below Wall St target ($107.80)
- WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$86.58 -
$92.25
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$87.19
Resistance Level
$93.84
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
24.42
Wall Street Target
$107.80
(+21.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
10.3%
Profit Margin
14.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
24.4 vs 26.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$87.06
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$85.06
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$83.10
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 24â26)
$89.17
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 24.4, Growth: 11.3%)
$122.79
(+38%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 11.3%)
$100.93
(+13%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 11.3%)
$85.79
(-4%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (29x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (24x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 29.02 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.07
Bull Case
$116.48
(+31%)
Analyst growth 18.9%, PE expands to 31.9
Base Case
$105.89
(+19%)
Market implied 18.9%, PE stable at 29.0
Bear Case
$60.57
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 24.4 to 26.2
Stabilization Target:
$95.61
(+7.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 22, 2026 2:05 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:05 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:05 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ORLY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-23
Jonathan L. Jackson
SELL
2026-03-19
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Advanced ORLY Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ORLY price and gamma walls.
