Is ORLY stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, ORLY is currently a HOLD with moderate confidence. 📊 HOLD: ORLY shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of ORLY stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for ORLY to be between $87.36 and $91.23. The current price is $87.19.

What is the analyst price target for ORLY?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for ORLY is $110.21. This implies a potential upside of 28.7% from current levels.

ORLY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

ORLY - O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.

RETAIL-AUTO & HOME SUPPLY STORES

$87.20

1.56 (1.83%) ▲

5d: -3.4%

30d: -5.57%

90d: -1.7%

HOLD

MODERATE Confidence

Protect Your ORLY Gains

Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Jul 22, 2026 28d

Smart Money Accumulation

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Strength: 6.1/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ORLY shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 11.1%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$129.96

Based on 7.6% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$80.70

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: ORLY is currently trading at $87.19, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $87.36 to $91.23. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 23.7) compared to its historical average (26.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 16.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, ORLY is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $85.35. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: ORLY has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $110.21 (+28.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position SLIGHTLY LOW

Historical Trading Range $87.36 - $91.23

Company Quality Score 56/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 57.1%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 28.7% below Wall St target ($110.21)

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $87.36 - $91.23

Current vs Trading Range SLIGHTLY LOW

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $85.35

Resistance Level $90.57

Current Trend Downtrend

Technical data as of Jun 9, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 23.67

Wall Street Target $110.21 (+28.7%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 10.2%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 16.1%

Profit Margin 14.3%

Valuation Discount vs History -3.9% cheaper

PE vs Historical 23.7 vs 26.6 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -3.9% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $82.29 (-4%)

2-Year Target $79.08 (-8%)

3-Year Target $76.00 (-11%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 24→27) $85.40 (0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 23.7, Growth: 11.1%) $117.42 (+37%)

Base: (SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 11.1%) $108.05 (+26%)

Bear: (PE: 18.5, Growth: 11.1%) $91.84 (+7%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (28x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (24x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 28.29 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.07

Bull Case $112.56 (+32%)

Analyst growth 17.8%, PE expands to 31.1

Base Case $102.33 (+20%)

Market implied 17.8%, PE stable at 28.3

Bear Case $59.05 (-31%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.0

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 23.7 to 26.6

Stabilization Target: $96.23 (+12.4%)

PE Expansion Potential: +12.4%

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Last updated: June 23, 2026 2:10 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:10 PM

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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

Sells

Net

INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Ro Khanna SELL 2026-03-23

Jonathan L. Jackson SELL 2026-03-19

Ro Khanna SELL 2026-02-05

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