O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ORLY - O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.
$89.06
-0.96 (-1.07%)
▼
5d:
+2.73%
30d:
+3.78%
90d:
+3.43%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
6d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ORLY shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ORLY shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$131.49
Based on 7.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$81.64
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ORLY is currently trading at $89.06, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $84.43 to $87.84. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 24.6) is in line with its historical norms (25.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 10.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ORLY is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $90.73. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ORLY scores 18/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $107.35 (+19.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ORLY is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $90.73. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ORLY scores 18/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $107.35 (+19.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$84.43 -
$87.84
Company Quality Score
40/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
26.2%
Protect Your Profits
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View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (18/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($107.35)
- WARNING: Composite score 40/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$84.43 -
$87.84
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$84.59
Resistance Level
$90.73
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
24.65
Wall Street Target
$107.35
(+19.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
10.3%
Profit Margin
14.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
24.7 vs 25.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$88.76
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$87.52
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$86.29
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 25→26)
$89.96
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 24.7, Growth: 11.2%)
$123.86
(+38%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 11.2%)
$99.79
(+11%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 11.2%)
$84.82
(-6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (28x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (25x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 28.28 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.15
Bull Case
$113.58
(+26%)
Analyst growth 15.9%, PE expands to 31.1
Base Case
$103.26
(+15%)
Market implied 15.9%, PE stable at 28.3
Bear Case
$60.57
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 24.7 to 25.7
Stabilization Target:
$93.85
(+4.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 21, 2026 2:34 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:34 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:34 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ORLY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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