Paccar (PCAR) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PCAR - Paccar Inc
$108.74
-2.08 (-1.88%)
▼
5d:
+0.56%
30d:
-6.31%
90d:
-13.87%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 16, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 27, 2026
7d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: PCAR trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.8% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: PCAR trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.8% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$223.84
Based on 11.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$138.99
21.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PCAR is currently trading at $108.74, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $108.21 to $118.81. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 15.5) compared to its historical average (18.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 4.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PCAR is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $105.44, while resistance sits at $112.71.
Market Sentiment: PCAR scores 75/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $133.38 (+20.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PCAR is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $105.44, while resistance sits at $112.71.
Market Sentiment: PCAR scores 75/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $133.38 (+20.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$108.21 -
$118.81
Company Quality Score
78/100
(STRONG BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 20.4% below Wall St target ($133.38)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 75/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$108.21 -
$118.81
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$105.44
Resistance Level
$112.71
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 16, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.54
Wall Street Target
$133.38
(+20.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
4.2%
Profit Margin
9.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.5 vs 18.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$105.50
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$100.44
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$95.62
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→18)
$110.77
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 19.8%)
$243.74
(+120%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.5, Growth: 19.8%)
$190.70
(+72%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.2, Growth: 19.8%)
$162.09
(+46%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.75 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.87
Bull Case
$178.51
(+61%)
Analyst growth 46.5%, PE expands to 25.0
Base Case
$162.29
(+46%)
Market implied 46.5%, PE stable at 22.8
Bear Case
$75.35
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.5 to 18.0
Stabilization Target:
$128.38
(+15.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+15.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 19, 2026 10:26 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:26 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:26 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PCAR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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