Is PCAR stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, PCAR is currently a HOLD with moderate confidence. 📊 HOLD: PCAR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of PCAR stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for PCAR to be between $126.61 and $134.11. The current price is $127.47.

What is the analyst price target for PCAR?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for PCAR is $141.03. This implies a potential upside of 7.8% from current levels.

PCAR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

PCAR - Paccar Inc

MOTOR VEHICLES & PASSENGER CAR BODIES

$127.47

-0.55 (-0.43%) ▼

5d: -2.74%

30d: +0.97%

90d: +16.54%

HOLD

MODERATE Confidence

Protect Your PCAR Gains

Analysis Updated: Aug 19, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Jul 28, 2026 0d

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 13, 2026 at $130.72 · last confirmed Aug 14, 2026

Strength: 5.7/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: PCAR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 20.5%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$234.15

Based on 12.3% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$145.39

12.3% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.4x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: PCAR is currently trading at $127.47, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $126.61 to $134.11. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 18.2) is in line with its historical norms (18.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 4.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, PCAR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $127.06. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: PCAR scores 33/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position SLIGHTLY LOW

Historical Trading Range $126.61 - $134.11

Company Quality Score 53/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 52.4%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (33/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($141.03)

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $126.61 - $134.11

Current vs Trading Range SLIGHTLY LOW

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $127.06

Resistance Level $135.40

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Aug 19, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 18.20

Wall Street Target $141.03 (+7.8%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 0.5%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 4.2%

Profit Margin 9.0%

Valuation Discount vs History -0.4% cheaper

PE vs Historical 18.2 vs 18.4 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -0.4% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $130.32 (0%)

2-Year Target $129.80 (-1%)

3-Year Target $129.28 (-1%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 18→18) $130.70 (0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.1, Growth: 20.5%) $253.17 (+94%)

Base: (SPY PE: 18.2, Growth: 20.5%) $229.12 (+75%)

Bear: (PE: 15.5, Growth: 20.5%) $194.75 (+49%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (28x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 27.53 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.75

Bull Case $217.75 (+71%)

Analyst growth 51.4%, PE expands to 30.3

Base Case $197.95 (+55%)

Market implied 51.4%, PE stable at 27.5

Bear Case $88.94 (-30%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 23.4

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.2 to 18.4

Stabilization Target: $132.28 (+1.1%)

PE Expansion Potential: +1.1%

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Last updated: August 20, 2026 9:10 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:10 AM

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Advanced PCAR Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's PCAR price and gamma walls.

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