PMT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PMT - PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust
$9.48
0.03 (0.32%)
â˛
5d:
+0.32%
30d:
-6.32%
90d:
-9.37%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 12, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: PMT is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -2.7% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: PMT is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -2.7% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$20.00
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$12.42
23.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PMT is currently trading at $9.48, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.43 to $10.22. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.6) is in line with its historical norms (7.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 17.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PMT is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $9.74. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: PMT scores 69/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.61 (+22.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PMT is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $9.74. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: PMT scores 69/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.61 (+22.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$9.43 -
$10.22
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (69/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 22.8% below Wall St target ($11.61)
- WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$9.43 -
$10.22
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.05
Resistance Level
$9.74
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 12, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.62
Wall Street Target
$11.61
(+22.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
17.0%
Profit Margin
24.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.6 vs 7.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$9.19
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$8.95
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$8.71
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7â7)
$9.46
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 32.3%)
$66.91
(+608%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.6, Growth: 32.3%)
$21.91
(+132%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.6, Growth: 32.3%)
$18.62
(+97%)
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Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 6.51 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.44
Bull Case
$10.22
(+8%)
Analyst growth -0.9%, PE expands to 7.2
Base Case
$9.29
(-2%)
Market implied -0.9%, PE stable at 6.5
Bear Case
$6.38
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.6 to 7.2
Stabilization Target:
$10.27
(+8.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 13, 2026 3:14 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:14 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:14 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PMT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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