PMT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PMT - PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust
$7.36
-0.13 (-1.74%)
▼
5d:
-5.64%
30d:
-19.74%
90d:
-27.7%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 9, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
16d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: PMT shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: PMT shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$18.63
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.57
36.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PMT is currently trading at $7.36, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $7.96 to $9.34. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.4) compared to its historical average (7.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 17.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PMT is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $7.31. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PMT scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.11 (+50.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PMT is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $7.31. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PMT scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.11 (+50.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$7.96 -
$9.34
Company Quality Score
31/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 50.9% below Wall St target ($11.11)
- WARNING: Composite score 31/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$7.96 -
$9.34
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$7.31
Resistance Level
$8.33
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.39
Wall Street Target
$11.11
(+50.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
17.0%
Profit Margin
24.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.4 vs 7.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$6.73
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$6.16
(-16%)
3-Year Target
$5.64
(-23%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5→7)
$7.33
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 29.5%)
$59.01
(+702%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.4, Growth: 29.5%)
$16.00
(+117%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.6, Growth: 29.5%)
$13.60
(+85%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 5.20 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.44
Bull Case
$7.82
(+6%)
Analyst growth -5.1%, PE expands to 5.7
Base Case
$7.11
(-3%)
Market implied -5.1%, PE stable at 5.2
Bear Case
$5.09
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 4.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.4 to 7.0
Stabilization Target:
$9.57
(+30.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+30.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 12, 2026 3:32 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:32 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:32 AM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is PMT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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