PTON Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PTON - Peloton Interactive, Inc. Class A Common Stock
$5.40
0.02 (0.37%)
▲
5d:
-0.92%
30d:
-1.91%
90d:
-6.41%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 4, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Aug 7, 2026 at $5.68 · last confirmed Sep 4, 2026
Strength: 8.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: PTON shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: PTON shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$11.50
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$7.14
24.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PTON is currently trading at $5.40, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $5.23 to $6.18. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 18.9) is in line with its historical norms (20.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 160.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PTON is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $5.08, while resistance sits at $5.58.
Market Sentiment: PTON scores 80/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.00 (+48.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PTON is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $5.08, while resistance sits at $5.58.
Market Sentiment: PTON scores 80/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.00 (+48.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$5.23 -
$6.18
Company Quality Score
69/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (80/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 48.1% below Wall St target ($8.00)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 80/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$5.23 -
$6.18
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$5.08
Resistance Level
$5.58
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 4, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.93
Wall Street Target
$8.00
(+48.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
160.6%
Profit Margin
2.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.9 vs 20.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$5.24
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$5.08
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$4.93
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→21)
$5.39
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 121.1%)
$19.47
(+261%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.9, Growth: 121.1%)
$18.23
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.1, Growth: 121.1%)
$15.49
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (38x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 38.43 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.14
Bull Case
$11.84
(+119%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 42.3
Base Case
$10.76
(+99%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 38.4
Bear Case
$3.66
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 32.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.9 to 20.7
Stabilization Target:
$5.90
(+9.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 05, 2026 2:36 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:36 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:36 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PTON showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Charles Peter Kirol
SELL
3670 shares
2026-04-20
Charles Peter Kirol
SELL
19806 shares
2026-04-16
Maria Elvira Salazar
BUY
2026-03-19
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Advanced PTON Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's PTON price and gamma walls.
