Peloton Interactive (PTON) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PTON - Peloton Interactive, Inc. Class A Common Stock
$5.31
0.01 (0.19%)
▲
5d:
+0.19%
30d:
+5.99%
90d:
-18.56%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Nov 3, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
TODAY
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PTON shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PTON shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$11.16
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$6.93
23.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PTON is currently trading at $5.31, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.96 to $5.33. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 18.6) is in line with its historical norms (20.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 160.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PTON is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $5.08, while resistance sits at $5.47.
Market Sentiment: PTON scores 65/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $7.70 (+45.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PTON is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $5.08, while resistance sits at $5.47.
Market Sentiment: PTON scores 65/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $7.70 (+45.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$4.96 -
$5.33
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
76.2%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (65/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 45.0% below Wall St target ($7.70)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 65/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$4.96 -
$5.33
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$5.08
Resistance Level
$5.47
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.62
Wall Street Target
$7.70
(+45.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
160.6%
Profit Margin
2.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.6 vs 20.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$5.17
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$5.04
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$4.91
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→20)
$5.30
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 121.1%)
$19.12
(+260%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.6, Growth: 121.1%)
$17.92
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.8, Growth: 121.1%)
$15.23
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (38x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 37.86 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.14
Bull Case
$11.66
(+120%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 41.6
Base Case
$10.60
(+100%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 37.9
Bear Case
$3.60
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 32.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.6 to 20.1
Stabilization Target:
$5.73
(+8.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: November 04, 2026 2:51 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:51 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:51 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PTON showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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Advanced PTON Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's PTON price and gamma walls.
