Is PZZA stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, PZZA is currently a HOLD with low confidence. 📊 HOLD: PZZA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of PZZA stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for PZZA to be between $19.47 and $21.95. The current price is $19.75.

What is the analyst price target for PZZA?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for PZZA is $29.00. This implies a potential upside of 46.8% from current levels.

Papa John's International (PZZA) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

PZZA - Papa John's International Inc

RETAIL-EATING PLACES

$19.75

0.29 (1.49%) ▲

5d: +1.65%

30d: -7.97%

90d: -40.6%

HOLD

LOW Confidence

Protect Your PZZA Gains

Analysis Updated: Oct 9, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Nov 05, 2026 24d

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Sep 28, 2026 at $19.91 · last confirmed Oct 8, 2026

Strength: 6.3/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: PZZA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 12.7%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$37.31

Based on 8.4% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$23.17

14.8% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.8x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: PZZA is currently trading at $19.75, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $19.47 to $21.95. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 14.8) compared to its historical average (18.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, PZZA is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $18.92, while resistance sits at $20.50.

Market Sentiment: PZZA scores 78/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $29.00 (+46.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position SLIGHTLY LOW

Historical Trading Range $19.47 - $21.95

Company Quality Score 68/100 (BUY)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 90.5%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
BULLISH: Strong technical setup (78/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 46.8% below Wall St target ($29.00)
CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 10% over 20 days — wait for relative strength

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $19.47 - $21.95

Current vs Trading Range SLIGHTLY LOW

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $18.92

Resistance Level $20.51

Current Trend Strong Downtrend

Technical data as of Oct 9, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 14.83

Wall Street Target $29.00 (+46.8%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) -8.8%

Earnings Growth (YoY) -14.3%

Profit Margin 1.4%

Valuation Discount vs History -7.5% cheaper

PE vs Historical 14.8 vs 18.8 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -7.5% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $18.27 (-8%)

2-Year Target $16.90 (-14%)

3-Year Target $15.63 (-21%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 15→19) $19.82 (+0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 19.9, Growth: 12.7%) $37.84 (+92%)

Base: (SPY PE: 14.8, Growth: 12.7%) $28.26 (+43%)

Bear: (PE: 12.6, Growth: 12.7%) $24.02 (+22%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 24.32 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.80

Bull Case $35.64 (+80%)

Analyst growth 66.5%, PE expands to 26.8

Base Case $32.40 (+64%)

Market implied 66.5%, PE stable at 24.3

Bear Case $13.23 (-33%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.7

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.8 to 18.8

Stabilization Target: $25.04 (+26.8%)

PE Expansion Potential: +26.8%

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Last updated: October 11, 2026 7:33 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:33 AM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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Advanced PZZA Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's PZZA price and gamma walls.

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