What is the fair value of PZZA stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for PZZA to be between $27.79 and $34.04. The current price is $24.32.

What is the analyst price target for PZZA?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for PZZA is $28.67. This implies a potential upside of 17.9% from current levels.

PZZA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

PZZA - Papa John's International Inc

RETAIL-EATING PLACES

$24.32

0.47 (1.97%) ▲

5d: -20.83%

30d: -26.86%

90d: -27.14%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Aug 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Aug 06, 2026 0d

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 7, 2026 at $24.47 · last confirmed Aug 11, 2026

Strength: 7.6/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: PZZA is down 20.8% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 19.8%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$48.07

Based on 11.9% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$29.84

18.5% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.4x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: PZZA is currently trading at $24.32, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $27.79 to $34.04. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 17.1) compared to its historical average (19.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, PZZA is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $23.27, while resistance sits at $31.72.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 40/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.67 (+17.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD

Historical Trading Range $27.79 - $34.04

Company Quality Score 47/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 77.1%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($28.67)
WARNING: Composite score 47/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $27.79 - $34.04

Current vs Trading Range OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $23.27

Resistance Level $31.72

Current Trend Downtrend

Technical data as of Aug 11, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 17.11

Wall Street Target $28.67 (+17.9%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) -8.8%

Earnings Growth (YoY) -14.3%

Profit Margin 1.4%

Valuation Discount vs History -4.0% cheaper

PE vs Historical 17.1 vs 19.4 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -4.0% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $23.35 (-4%)

2-Year Target $22.41 (-8%)

3-Year Target $21.52 (-12%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 17→19) $24.39 (+0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.2, Growth: 19.8%) $49.42 (+103%)

Base: (SPY PE: 17.1, Growth: 19.8%) $41.81 (+72%)

Bear: (PE: 14.5, Growth: 19.8%) $35.54 (+46%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (31x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 30.58 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.78

Bull Case $47.79 (+97%)

Analyst growth 82.2%, PE expands to 33.6

Base Case $43.45 (+79%)

Market implied 82.2%, PE stable at 30.6

Bear Case $16.22 (-33%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 26.0

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.1 to 19.4

Stabilization Target: $27.57 (+13.4%)

PE Expansion Potential: +13.4%

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Last updated: August 12, 2026 6:55 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:55 AM

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Advanced PZZA Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's PZZA price and gamma walls.

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