SMG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SMG - The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company
$62.61
1.92 (3.16%)
▲
5d:
+5.14%
30d:
-10.38%
90d:
+6.33%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 25, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
0d
Get Alerted When SMG Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SMG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: SMG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$82.63
Based on 5.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$51.30
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SMG is currently trading at $62.61, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $61.91 to $69.93. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.2) is in line with its historical norms (13.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMG is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $63.65. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: SMG scores 98/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $77.17 (+23.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMG is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $63.65. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: SMG scores 98/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $77.17 (+23.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$61.91 -
$69.93
Company Quality Score
72/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
95.2%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (98/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.2%)
- BULLISH: Trading 23.2% below Wall St target ($77.17)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 19% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$61.91 -
$69.93
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$58.56
Resistance Level
$63.65
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 25, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.23
Wall Street Target
$77.17
(+23.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-25.5%
Profit Margin
2.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.2 vs 13.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$62.42
(0%)
2-Year Target
$62.23
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$62.05
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→13)
$62.37
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 7.2%)
$116.76
(+87%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.2, Growth: 7.2%)
$77.04
(+23%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.2, Growth: 7.2%)
$65.49
(+5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.52 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.58
Bull Case
$122.45
(+96%)
Analyst growth 83.4%, PE expands to 25.9
Base Case
$111.32
(+78%)
Market implied 83.4%, PE stable at 23.5
Bear Case
$41.27
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.2 to 13.3
Stabilization Target:
$62.94
(+0.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 26, 2026 7:32 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:32 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:32 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is SMG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Agricultural Inputs Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Agricultural Inputs by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
CTVA
Corteva Inc |
STRONG BUY
24 analysts |
$92 | 45 HOLD |
|
NTR
Nutrien Ltd |
STRONG BUY
24 analysts |
$76 | 29 SELL |
|
MOS
The Mosaic Company |
BUY
20 analysts |
$26 | 44 HOLD |
|
FMC
FMC Corporation |
HOLD
20 analysts |
$14 | 39 SELL |
|
CF
CF Industries Holdings I… |
SELL
21 analysts |
$126 | 35 SELL |
