STAG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
STAG - STAG INDUSTRIAL, INC.
$36.43
-0.15 (-0.41%)
▼
5d:
-1.38%
30d:
-12.78%
90d:
-3.39%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 19, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 28, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: STAG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: STAG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$53.70
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$33.34
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: STAG is currently trading at $36.43, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $37.19 to $40.82. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 33.0) is in line with its historical norms (34.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 3.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STAG is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $36.29. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: STAG scores 67/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $42.08 (+15.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STAG is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $36.29. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: STAG scores 67/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $42.08 (+15.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$37.19 -
$40.82
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
88.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (67/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($42.08)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 67/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$37.19 -
$40.82
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$36.29
Resistance Level
$37.66
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 19, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
33.03
Wall Street Target
$42.08
(+15.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
3.3%
Profit Margin
28.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
33.0 vs 34.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$35.99
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$35.56
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$35.13
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 33→34)
$36.38
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 33.0, Growth: 51.0%)
$36.99
(+2%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 51.0%)
$22.48
(-38%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 51.0%)
$19.11
(-48%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 28.14 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.30
Bull Case
$34.14
(-6%)
Analyst growth -15.2%, PE expands to 31.0
Base Case
$31.04
(-15%)
Market implied -15.2%, PE stable at 28.1
Bear Case
$24.87
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 23.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 33.0 to 34.2
Stabilization Target:
$37.72
(+3.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 20, 2026 7:39 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:39 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:39 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is STAG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Matts Pinard
SELL
25242 shares
2026-02-23
William R Crooker
SELL
93732 shares
2026-02-23
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