The Timken (TKR) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TKR - The Timken Company
$115.15
-0.97 (-0.84%)
▼
5d:
-4.03%
30d:
-3.56%
90d:
-17.51%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 12, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
21d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TKR shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TKR shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$193.01
Based on 10.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$119.85
3.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TKR is currently trading at $115.15, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $115.33 to $120.20. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.9) is in line with its historical norms (16.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TKR is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $113.62. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 54/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $146.47 (+27.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TKR is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $113.62. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 54/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $146.47 (+27.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$115.33 -
$120.20
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (54/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 27.2% below Wall St target ($146.47)
- WARNING: Composite score 53/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$115.33 -
$120.20
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$113.62
Resistance Level
$123.11
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 12, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.86
Wall Street Target
$146.47
(+27.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-63.4%
Profit Margin
5.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.9 vs 16.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$113.42
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$111.72
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$110.05
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→17)
$115.21
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 15.9%)
$224.67
(+95%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.9, Growth: 15.9%)
$179.36
(+56%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.5, Growth: 15.9%)
$152.46
(+32%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (31x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 31.47 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.69
Bull Case
$251.40
(+118%)
Analyst growth 96.8%, PE expands to 34.6
Base Case
$228.55
(+99%)
Market implied 96.8%, PE stable at 31.5
Bear Case
$78.96
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 26.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.9 to 16.6
Stabilization Target:
$120.56
(+4.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 13, 2026 4:51 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:51 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:51 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TKR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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