WMS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
WMS - ADVANCED DRAINAGE SYSTEMS, INC.
$132.64
1.89 (1.45%)
▲
5d:
-6.23%
30d:
-11.43%
90d:
+0.1%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: WMS shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: WMS shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$205.25
Based on 6.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$127.44
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: WMS is currently trading at $132.64, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $137.41 to $147.49. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 19.8) compared to its historical average (22.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 18.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, WMS is showing support break momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $130.22. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 52/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $183.92 (+38.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, WMS is showing support break momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $130.22. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 52/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $183.92 (+38.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$137.41 -
$147.49
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding WMS? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (52/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 38.7% below Wall St target ($183.92)
- WARNING: Composite score 43/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$137.41 -
$147.49
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$130.22
Resistance Level
$145.34
Current Trend
Support Break
Technical data as of
Sep 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.83
Wall Street Target
$183.92
(+38.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
20.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
18.8%
Profit Margin
14.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
19.8 vs 22.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$127.73
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$123.01
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$118.45
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→22)
$132.64
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 9.4%)
$176.98
(+33%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.8, Growth: 9.4%)
$173.44
(+31%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 9.4%)
$147.43
(+11%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.36 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.81
Bull Case
$171.92
(+32%)
Analyst growth 15.2%, PE expands to 25.7
Base Case
$156.29
(+20%)
Market implied 15.2%, PE stable at 23.4
Bear Case
$92.30
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.8 to 22.2
Stabilization Target:
$148.52
(+12.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 02, 2026 5:11 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:11 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:11 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is WMS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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