AVAV Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AVAV - AeroVironment, Inc.
$141.80
-2.78 (-1.92%)
▼
5d:
-19.81%
30d:
-18.0%
90d:
-21.1%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Sep 02, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.7/10
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3 traders called AVAV this week
67% bullish • 1 bearish
67% bullish • 1 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AVAV trades at premium valuation expecting 16.3% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: AVAV trades at premium valuation expecting 16.3% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$6.58
Based on -27.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.09
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AVAV is currently trading at $141.80, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $146.34 to $182.17. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 85.4) compared to its historical average (54.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 16.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVAV is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $139.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AVAV has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $245.38 (+73.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVAV is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $139.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AVAV has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $245.38 (+73.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$146.34 -
$182.17
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AVAV? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 73.0% below Wall St target ($245.38)
- NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 16.3% growth expectation is conservative given 176% recent growth
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-19.8%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$146.34 -
$182.17
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$139.00
Resistance Level
$200.38
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
85.39
Wall Street Target
$245.38
(+73.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
133.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
175.7%
Profit Margin
-13.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+16.3% premium
PE vs Historical
85.4 vs 54.2
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+16.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$164.91
(+16%)
2-Year Target
$191.79
(+35%)
3-Year Target
$223.06
(+57%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 85→54)
PE COMPRESSION
$141.59
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 85.4, Growth: -58.5%)
$103.37
(+-27%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: -58.5%)
$26.37
(-81%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: -58.5%)
$22.41
(-84%)
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 6:01 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:01 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:01 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AVAV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
9
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Stephen F Page
SELL
250 shares
2026-04-15
Brian Charles Shackley
SELL
200 shares
2026-03-16
Stephen F Page
SELL
250 shares
2026-03-16
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AVAV price and gamma walls.
