AVAV Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AVAV - AeroVironment, Inc.
$151.25
-0.08 (-0.05%)
▼
5d:
-12.04%
30d:
-7.26%
90d:
-26.67%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 29, 2026
5d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: AVAV is down 12.0% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: AVAV is down 12.0% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$196.45
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$121.98
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AVAV is currently trading at $151.25, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $161.54 to $195.13. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 37.5) compared to its historical average (53.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 11.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 175.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVAV is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $150.35. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $301.12 (+99.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVAV is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $150.35. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $301.12 (+99.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$161.54 -
$195.13
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AVAV? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 99.0% below Wall St target ($301.12)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -12.0% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$161.54 -
$195.13
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$150.36
Resistance Level
$190.22
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
37.50
Wall Street Target
$301.12
(+99.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
143.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
175.7%
Profit Margin
-13.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-11.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
37.5 vs 53.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-11.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$136.20
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$122.58
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$110.32
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 38→54)
$158.56
(+5%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 37.5, Growth: 40.1%)
$415.94
(+175%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 40.1%)
$241.56
(+60%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 40.1%)
$205.33
(+36%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 37.5 to 53.9
Stabilization Target:
$217.50
(+43.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+43.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 12:55 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:55 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:55 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AVAV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
11
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Stephen F Page
SELL
250 shares
2026-04-15
Brian Charles Shackley
SELL
200 shares
2026-03-16
Stephen F Page
SELL
250 shares
2026-03-16
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Advanced AVAV Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AVAV price and gamma walls.
