AeroVironment (AVAV) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AVAV - AeroVironment, Inc.
$140.48
0.17 (0.12%)
▲
5d:
-7.61%
30d:
-3.38%
90d:
-20.56%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Sep 09, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AVAV shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AVAV shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$6.58
Based on -27.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.09
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AVAV is currently trading at $140.48, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $143.40 to $156.13. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 84.5) compared to its historical average (65.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 9.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVAV is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $138.40. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AVAV scores 30/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $219.35 (+56.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVAV is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $138.40. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AVAV scores 30/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $219.35 (+56.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$143.40 -
$156.13
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AVAV? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (30/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 56.3% below Wall St target ($219.35)
- NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 9.0% growth expectation is conservative given 176% recent growth
- WARNING: Composite score 43/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$143.40 -
$156.13
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$138.40
Resistance Level
$168.00
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
84.49
Wall Street Target
$219.35
(+56.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
175.7%
Profit Margin
-10.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+9.0% premium
PE vs Historical
84.5 vs 65.3
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+9.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$152.94
(+9%)
2-Year Target
$166.70
(+19%)
3-Year Target
$181.71
(+30%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 84→65)
PE COMPRESSION
$140.44
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 84.5, Growth: -58.5%)
$102.29
(+-27%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.4, Growth: -58.5%)
$24.70
(-82%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.3, Growth: -58.5%)
$20.99
(-85%)
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 12:14 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:14 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:14 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AVAV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Stephen F Page
SELL
250 shares
2026-04-15
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Advanced AVAV Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AVAV price and gamma walls.
