AeroVironment (AVAV) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AVAV - AeroVironment, Inc.
$115.35
-2.16 (-1.84%)
▼
5d:
-6.39%
30d:
-26.03%
90d:
-22.85%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Dec 08, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AVAV is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.3% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: AVAV is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.3% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$6.58
Based on -27.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.09
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AVAV is currently trading at $115.35, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $125.64 to $155.57. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 70.8) is in line with its historical norms (66.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVAV is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $114.25. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AVAV scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $213.44 (+81.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVAV is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $114.25. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AVAV scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $213.44 (+81.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$125.64 -
$155.57
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
91.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AVAV? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 81.6% below Wall St target ($213.44)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 14% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-6.4%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$125.64 -
$155.57
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$114.26
Resistance Level
$139.89
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
70.76
Wall Street Target
$213.44
(+81.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
175.7%
Profit Margin
-10.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.3% premium
PE vs Historical
70.8 vs 66.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$120.21
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$122.98
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$125.81
(+7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 71→66)
PE COMPRESSION
$117.70
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 70.8, Growth: -58.5%)
$85.66
(+-27%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: -58.5%)
$24.04
(-80%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: -58.5%)
$20.44
(-83%)
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 2:23 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:23 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:23 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AVAV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced AVAV Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AVAV price and gamma walls.
