AVAV
AeroVironment, Inc.
AIRCRAFT
AeroVironment (AVAV) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$124.97
+1.47 (+1.19%)
▲
5d:
+10.37%
30d:
-1.7%
90d:
-34.03%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
BUY
MODERATE Confidence (84%)
Quality Score
53/100
Position
FAIR
30-Day Fair Range
$116.10 – $134.12
Position: FAIR
Forward P/E & Valuation
74.4x
FAIR
vs 66.6x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$212.20
+71.8% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$100.40 / $138.43
Trend: Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AVAV shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.7% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Nov 9, 2026 at $123.70 · last confirmed Nov 10, 2026
Strength: 3.1/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$6.58
Based on -27.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.09
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AVAV is currently trading at $124.97, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $116.10 to $134.12. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 74.4) compared to its historical average (66.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVAV is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $100.40, while resistance sits at $138.43.
Market Sentiment: AVAV scores 65/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $212.20 (+71.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVAV is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $100.40, while resistance sits at $138.43.
Market Sentiment: AVAV scores 65/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $212.20 (+71.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$116.10 -
$134.12
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
84.3%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$116.10 -
$134.12
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support Level
$100.40
Resistance Level
$138.43
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (65/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 71.8% below Wall St target ($212.20)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 65/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
74.37
Wall Street Target
$212.20
(+71.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
175.7%
Profit Margin
-10.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.7% premium
PE vs Historical
74.4 vs 66.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$128.07
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$132.81
(+8%)
3-Year Target
$137.72
(+12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 74→67)
PE COMPRESSION
$123.34
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 74.4, Growth: -58.5%)
$90.03
(+-27%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: -58.5%)
$24.04
(-81%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: -58.5%)
$20.44
(-84%)
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (AVAV)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 10, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
AeroVironment's stock surged over 10% on Monday following a sub-1 billion deal that renewed investor interest in the drone sector.
Key Retail Themes:
drone sector recovery
significant deal for AeroVironment
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 3:03 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:03 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:03 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AVAV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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