What is the fair value of AVAV stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for AVAV to be between $144.88 and $180.46. The current price is $160.22.

What is the analyst price target for AVAV?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for AVAV is $225.77. This implies a potential upside of 40.9% from current levels.

AVAV Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

AVAV - AeroVironment, Inc.

AIRCRAFT

$160.22

0.43 (0.27%) ▲

5d: -16.9%

30d: +0.94%

90d: -1.76%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

Protect Your AVAV Gains

Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Sep 08, 2026 15d

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 7, 2026 at $186.73 · last confirmed Aug 17, 2026

Strength: 6.6/10

Get Alerted When AVAV Hits Your Target Price

Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move

You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.

100% Free No spam, ever Unsubscribe anytime

Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

Loading historical data...

💡

Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: AVAV is down 16.9% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: -58.5%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$6.58

Based on -27.2% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$4.09

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: AVAV is currently trading at $160.22, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $144.88 to $180.46. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 96.5) compared to its historical average (61.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 16.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, AVAV is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $155.81. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: AVAV scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $225.77 (+40.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position FAIR

Historical Trading Range $144.88 - $180.46

Company Quality Score 40/100 (SELL)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 50.0%

Protect Your Profits

Holding AVAV? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.

View Profit Protection Plan

All Signals

NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 40.9% below Wall St target ($225.77)
NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 16.3% growth expectation is conservative given 176% recent growth
WARNING: Composite score 40/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $144.88 - $180.46

Current vs Trading Range FAIR

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $155.81

Resistance Level $207.83

Current Trend Downtrend

Technical data as of Aug 21, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 96.48

Wall Street Target $225.77 (+40.9%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 133.3%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 175.7%

Profit Margin -13.4%

Valuation Premium vs History +16.3% premium

PE vs Historical 96.5 vs 61.3 STRETCHED

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +16.3% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $186.34 (+16%)

2-Year Target $216.71 (+35%)

3-Year Target $252.03 (+57%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 96→61) PE COMPRESSION $160.14 (0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 96.5, Growth: -58.5%) $116.80 (+-27%)

Base: (SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: -58.5%) $24.30 (-85%)

Bear: (PE: 17.1, Growth: -58.5%) $20.65 (-87%)

Share & Embed Analysis

Found this analysis useful? Share it with your community or embed the live chart on your blog.

Tweet Reddit

bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.

Last updated: August 23, 2026 4:25 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:25 AM

🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now

Ticker	Score	Recommendation	Change %

See Full Scanner Results »

Technical Signals Check

Is AVAV showing a specific setup today?

RSI Divergence Check TTM Squeeze Check MACD Crossover Check Gamma Walls Check Unusual Activity Check

Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

Sells

Net

INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Stephen F Page SELL 250 shares 2026-04-15

Brian Charles Shackley SELL 200 shares 2026-03-16

Stephen F Page SELL 250 shares 2026-03-16

View Insider Activity Scanner

Unlock Insider Activity

See real-time buying/selling by company executives for AVAV.

Create Free Account

Already have an account? Log In

Top Rated Aerospace & Defense Stocks

Top-rated stocks in Aerospace & Defense by analyst ratings.

Stock	Analyst Consensus	Analyst Target	Tradestie Score
HWM Howmet Aerospace Inc	STRONG BUY 25 analysts	$335	52 HOLD
BA The Boeing Company	STRONG BUY 27 analysts	$275	44 HOLD
TDG Transdigm Group Incorpor…	STRONG BUY 23 analysts	$1523	53 HOLD
GE GE Aerospace	STRONG BUY 20 analysts	$405	50 HOLD
RTX RTX Corporation	BUY 24 analysts	$232	43 HOLD

HWM Howmet Aerospace …

52 HOLD

BA The Boeing Company

44 HOLD

TDG Transdigm Group I…

Advanced AVAV Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AVAV price and gamma walls.

Iron Condor Bull Call Bear Put Collar

More Analysis for AVAV

AVAV Technical Chart AVAV Price Prediction AVAV Earnings Date AVAV Investment Advisor AVAV Fair Price Analyzer AVAV Options Advisor AVAV Options Chain AVAV Options Analysis AVAV Competitors

Compare AVAV with Peers

AVAV vs KTOS
Which one to buy?

AVAV vs RCAT
Which one to buy?

AVAV vs ONDS
Which one to buy?

AVAV vs LHX
Which one to buy?

AVAV vs VRT
Which one to buy?

ACHR.WS vs AVAV

LHX vs AVAV

AVAV vs SIDU
Winner: Tie

AVAV vs VXUS

AVAV vs EVEX

AVAV vs DPRO
Winner: Tie

AVAV vs RDW

AVAV vs KTOS

FTAI vs AVAV
Winner: FTAI

AVAV vs HII

Create New Comparison View All Competitors

Tradestie