AVAV Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AVAV - AeroVironment, Inc.
$149.37
2.80 (1.91%)
▲
5d:
-0.09%
30d:
-13.38%
90d:
-23.41%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Sep 08, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.7/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AVAV shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AVAV shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$6.58
Based on -27.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.09
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AVAV is currently trading at $149.37, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $139.23 to $164.35. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 89.9) compared to its historical average (57.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 16.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVAV is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $140.01, while resistance sits at $162.30.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $225.77 (+51.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVAV is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $140.01, while resistance sits at $162.30.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $225.77 (+51.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$139.23 -
$164.35
Company Quality Score
45/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 51.1% below Wall St target ($225.77)
- NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 16.3% growth expectation is conservative given 176% recent growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$139.23 -
$164.35
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$140.01
Resistance Level
$162.30
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
89.94
Wall Street Target
$225.77
(+51.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
133.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
175.7%
Profit Margin
-13.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+16.3% premium
PE vs Historical
89.9 vs 57.2
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+16.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$173.72
(+16%)
2-Year Target
$202.03
(+35%)
3-Year Target
$234.96
(+57%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 90→57)
PE COMPRESSION
$149.43
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 89.9, Growth: -58.5%)
$108.89
(+-27%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.7, Growth: -58.5%)
$25.10
(-83%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.6, Growth: -58.5%)
$21.33
(-86%)
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 9:48 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:48 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:48 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AVAV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Stephen F Page
SELL
250 shares
2026-04-15
Brian Charles Shackley
SELL
200 shares
2026-03-16
Stephen F Page
SELL
250 shares
2026-03-16
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Advanced AVAV Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AVAV price and gamma walls.
