American Vanguard (AVD) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AVD - American Vanguard Corporation
$1.60
-0.11 (-6.43%)
▼
5d:
-8.05%
30d:
-28.25%
90d:
-39.85%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 9, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 09, 2026
28d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AVD shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AVD shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$4.42
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$2.74
41.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AVD is currently trading at $1.60, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $1.76 to $2.25. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 4.2) compared to its historical average (8.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 20.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVD is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $1.60. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 6.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.00 (+650.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVD is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $1.60. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 6.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.00 (+650.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$1.76 -
$2.25
Company Quality Score
45/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-6.4%)
- BULLISH: Trading 650.0% below Wall St target ($12.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$1.76 -
$2.25
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$1.60
Resistance Level
$1.85
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
4.21
Wall Street Target
$12.00
(+650.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-9.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-17.6%
Profit Margin
-10.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-20.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
4.2 vs 8.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-20.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$1.44
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$1.30
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$1.17
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 4→8)
$2.30
(+44%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 4.2 to 8.3
Stabilization Target:
$3.15
(+97.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+97.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 11, 2026 6:55 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:55 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:55 AM
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Technical Signals Check
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Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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