AVD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AVD - American Vanguard Corporation
$2.66
-0.02 (-0.75%)
▼
5d:
-14.47%
30d:
-9.22%
90d:
+14.16%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
15d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: AVD is down 14.5% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: AVD is down 14.5% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$4.95
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$3.07
13.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AVD is currently trading at $2.66, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $2.59 to $2.92. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.0) compared to its historical average (9.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVD is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $2.56, while resistance sits at $3.23.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.00 (+351.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVD is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $2.56, while resistance sits at $3.23.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.00 (+351.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$2.59 -
$2.92
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 351.1% below Wall St target ($12.00)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -14.5% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$2.59 -
$2.92
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$2.56
Resistance Level
$3.23
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.00
Wall Street Target
$12.00
(+351.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-17.6%
Profit Margin
-8.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.0 vs 9.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$2.42
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$2.20
(-17%)
3-Year Target
$2.00
(-25%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→9)
$2.65
(0%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.0 to 9.3
Stabilization Target:
$3.53
(+32.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+32.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 3:30 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:30 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:30 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AVD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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