GHG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GHG - GreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd. American depositary shares, each representing one Class A ordinary share
$0.94
-0.09 (-8.74%)
▼
5d:
-6.93%
30d:
-11.32%
90d:
-18.26%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 21, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: GHG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: GHG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$1.72
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$1.07
11.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 2.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GHG is currently trading at $0.94, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $1.01 to $1.07. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 1.9) compared to its historical average (2.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GHG is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $0.93. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 8.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: GHG scores 37/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $3.60 (+283.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GHG is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $0.93. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 8.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: GHG scores 37/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $3.60 (+283.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$1.01 -
$1.07
Company Quality Score
37/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (37/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-8.7%)
- BULLISH: Trading 283.0% below Wall St target ($3.60)
- WARNING: Composite score 37/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$1.01 -
$1.07
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$0.93
Resistance Level
$1.06
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.92
Wall Street Target
$3.60
(+283.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-18.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-87.1%
Profit Margin
3.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
1.9 vs 2.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$0.86
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$0.78
(-17%)
3-Year Target
$0.72
(-24%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 2→3)
$0.93
(-1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (2x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.60 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.05
Bull Case
$2.27
(+141%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 22.7
Base Case
$2.06
(+119%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 20.6
Bear Case
$0.70
(-26%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 1.9 to 2.5
Stabilization Target:
$1.23
(+30.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+30.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 6:13 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:13 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:13 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is GHG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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