GHG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GHG - GreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd. American depositary shares, each representing one Class A ordinary share
$1.15
-0.01 (-0.43%)
▼
5d:
+3.6%
30d:
+0.0%
90d:
-7.26%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 21, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: GHG shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: GHG shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$1.79
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$1.11
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 2.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GHG is currently trading at $1.15, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $1.12 to $1.17. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 2.4) is in line with its historical norms (2.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 76.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GHG is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $1.16. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: GHG has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $3.60 (+213.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GHG is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $1.16. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: GHG has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $3.60 (+213.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$1.12 -
$1.17
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 213.0% below Wall St target ($3.60)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$1.12 -
$1.17
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$1.10
Resistance Level
$1.16
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
2.35
Wall Street Target
$3.60
(+213.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-14.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
76.6%
Profit Margin
16.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
2.4 vs 2.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$1.11
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$1.07
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$1.03
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 2→3)
$1.14
(-1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (5x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (2x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 4.62 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.25
Bull Case
$2.49
(+117%)
Analyst growth 96.0%, PE expands to 5.1
Base Case
$2.26
(+97%)
Market implied 96.0%, PE stable at 4.6
Bear Case
$0.79
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 3.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 2.3 to 2.6
Stabilization Target:
$1.27
(+10.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+10.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 04, 2026 1:07 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:07 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:07 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GHG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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