ON Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ON - ON Semiconductor Corp
$79.78
-1.39 (-1.71%)
▼
5d:
-0.77%
30d:
-16.86%
90d:
-22.69%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 10, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Aug 7, 2026 at $81.17 · last confirmed Aug 10, 2026
Strength: 9.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ON shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ON shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$182.14
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$113.09
29.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ON is currently trading at $79.78, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $81.46 to $93.27. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 17.7) compared to its historical average (20.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 36.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ON is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $75.69, while resistance sits at $86.88.
Market Sentiment: ON scores 66/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $108.88 (+36.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ON is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $75.69, while resistance sits at $86.88.
Market Sentiment: ON scores 66/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $108.88 (+36.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$81.46 -
$93.27
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (66/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 36.5% below Wall St target ($108.88)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 66/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$81.46 -
$93.27
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$75.69
Resistance Level
$86.88
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 10, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.66
Wall Street Target
$108.88
(+36.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
36.6%
Profit Margin
10.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.7 vs 20.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$75.63
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$71.70
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$67.97
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→21)
$79.69
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 41.3%)
$257.62
(+223%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.7, Growth: 41.3%)
$224.85
(+182%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.0, Growth: 41.3%)
$191.12
(+140%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 25.38 | Forward EPS (Implied): $3.14
Bull Case
$96.33
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 26.7
Base Case
$79.78
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 25.4
Bear Case
$61.03
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 22.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.7 to 20.7
Stabilization Target:
$93.53
(+17.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+17.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 10, 2026 8:34 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:34 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:34 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ON showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Trent Thad
SELL
30000 shares
2026-04-16
Sudhir Gopalswamy
SELL
6114 shares
2026-03-13
Hassane El-Khoury
SELL
20000 shares
2026-02-12
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