ON ON Semiconductor Corp SEMICONDUCTORS & RELATED DEVICES Best Semiconductor Stocks 2026 →

ON Semiconductor (ON) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

$71.06
-2.67 (-3.62%) â–ŧ
5d: +12.24% 30d: -3.58% 90d: -14.78%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (75%)
Quality Score
51/100
Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
30-Day Fair Range
$69.14 – $79.34
Position: SLIGHTLY LOW
Forward P/E & Valuation
15.0x CHEAP
vs 19.5x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$96.16
+35.3% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$61.90 / $74.84
Trend: Downtrend
💡Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
ℹī¸ NEUTRAL: ON is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -8.4% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
ON is flagged by 2 backtest-validated scanners today

SOXX Bullish (stocks from this scanner have beaten SPY by a median 1.9% over the next 20 trading days; ON has been on it 4 days), SPY Bullish (stocks from this scanner have beaten SPY by a median 0.37% over the next 20 trading days; ON has been on it 4 days). Backtested on 8 months of scanner history vs the S&P 500, as of 2026-11-13.

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Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Oct 30, 2026 at $71.67 · last confirmed Nov 13, 2026

Strength: 4.5/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$179.83
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$111.66
36.4% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.5x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: ON is currently trading at $71.06, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $69.14 to $79.34. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 15.0) compared to its historical average (19.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 26.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, ON is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $61.90, while resistance sits at $74.83. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.6% recently.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 47/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $96.16 (+35.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range $69.14 - $79.34
Company Quality Score 51/100 (HOLD)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 74.8%

Trading Range & Key Levels

30-Day Trading Range $69.14 - $79.34
Current vs Trading Range SLIGHTLY LOW
Support Level $61.90
Resistance Level $74.84
Current Trend Downtrend
Technical data as of Nov 13, 2026

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Quantitative Signal Breakdown

  • BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
  • NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (47/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.6%)
  • BULLISH: Trading 35.3% below Wall St target ($96.16)
  • WARNING: Composite score 51/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 15.01
Wall Street Target $96.16 (+35.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) 11.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY) 26.1%
Profit Margin 10.8%
Valuation Discount vs History -8.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical 15.0 vs 19.5 CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): -8.4% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $65.09 (-8%)
2-Year Target $59.62 (-16%)
3-Year Target $54.61 (-23%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 15→20) $70.97 (0%)
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 19.9, Growth: 43.9%) $280.27 (+294%)
Base: (SPY PE: 15.0, Growth: 43.9%) $211.76 (+198%)
Bear: (PE: 12.8, Growth: 43.9%) $180.00 (+153%)
📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (41x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 41.42 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.71
Bull Case $155.83 (+119%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 45.6
Base Case $141.66 (+99%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 41.4
Bear Case $48.16 (-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 35.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡 Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.0 to 19.5
Stabilization Target: $92.34 (+30.0%)
PE Expansion Potential: +30.0%
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Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (ON)

Bullish 5 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
4
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 14, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary: Bearish sentiment prevails on StockTwits with one trader expressing willingness to buy $ON if it falls below $60.
Key Retail Themes: $ON price movement
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams. View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 14, 2026 6:44 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:44 PM
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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL

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