ON Semiconductor (ON) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ON - ON Semiconductor Corp
$72.25
-0.98 (-1.34%)
âŧ
5d:
+0.32%
30d:
-1.23%
90d:
-18.86%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 02, 2026
8d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: ON is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -7.2% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: ON is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -7.2% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$175.94
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$109.24
33.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ON is currently trading at $72.25, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $70.89 to $80.28. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 15.8) compared to its historical average (19.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 36.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ON is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $71.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ON scores 33/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $102.00 (+41.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ON is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $71.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ON scores 33/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $102.00 (+41.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$70.89 -
$80.28
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ON? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (33/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 41.2% below Wall St target ($102.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 47/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$70.89 -
$80.28
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$71.00
Resistance Level
$77.69
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.83
Wall Street Target
$102.00
(+41.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
36.6%
Profit Margin
10.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.8 vs 19.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$67.05
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$62.22
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$57.74
(-20%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16â20)
$72.20
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 41.7%)
$257.69
(+257%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.8, Growth: 41.7%)
$205.45
(+184%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.5, Growth: 41.7%)
$174.63
(+142%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (49x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 49.48 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.48
Bull Case
$161.11
(+123%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 54.4
Base Case
$146.46
(+103%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 49.5
Bear Case
$49.80
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 42.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.8 to 19.8
Stabilization Target:
$90.35
(+25.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+25.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 9:14 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:14 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:14 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ON showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced ON Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ON price and gamma walls.
