What is the fair value of ON stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for ON to be between $72.30 and $80.45. The current price is $76.14.

What is the analyst price target for ON?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for ON is $107.08. This implies a potential upside of 40.6% from current levels.

ON Semiconductor (ON) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

ON - ON Semiconductor Corp

SEMICONDUCTORS & RELATED DEVICES

$76.14

5.97 (8.51%) ▲

5d: +3.38%

30d: -8.62%

90d: -34.34%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Nov 02, 2026

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Sep 4, 2026 at $74.38 · last confirmed Sep 11, 2026

Strength: 6.6/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
ℹ️ NEUTRAL: ON is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -6.1% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

ON is flagged by 1 backtest-validated scanner today

SOXX Bullish (stocks from this scanner have beaten SPY by a median 1.01% over the next 20 trading days; ON has been on it 1 day). Backtested on 8 months of scanner history vs the S&P 500, as of 2026-09-11.

See all of today's Best Signals in the free scanner →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 25.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$179.04

Based on 14.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$111.17

31.5% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.3x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: ON is currently trading at $76.14, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $72.30 to $80.45. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 16.8) compared to its historical average (20.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 36.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, ON is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $76.19. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 8.5% recently.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 50/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $107.08 (+40.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position FAIR

Historical Trading Range $72.30 - $80.45

Company Quality Score 52/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 77.1%

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All Signals

NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (50/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+8.5%)
BULLISH: Trading 40.6% below Wall St target ($107.08)
WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $72.30 - $80.45

Current vs Trading Range FAIR

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $68.79

Resistance Level $76.19

Current Trend Strong Downtrend

Technical data as of Sep 11, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 16.81

Wall Street Target $107.08 (+40.6%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 9.2%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 36.6%

Profit Margin 10.2%

Valuation Discount vs History -6.1% cheaper

PE vs Historical 16.8 vs 20.3 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -6.1% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $71.50 (-6%)

2-Year Target $67.13 (-12%)

3-Year Target $63.04 (-17%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 17→20) $76.12 (0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.2, Growth: 41.4%) $258.40 (+239%)

Base: (SPY PE: 16.8, Growth: 41.4%) $215.37 (+183%)

Bear: (PE: 14.3, Growth: 41.4%) $183.06 (+140%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (46x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 46.16 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.52

Bull Case $154.37 (+103%)

Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 50.8

Base Case $140.34 (+84%)

Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 46.2

Bear Case $47.72 (-37%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 39.2

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.8 to 20.3

Stabilization Target: $91.94 (+20.8%)

PE Expansion Potential: +20.8%

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Last updated: September 12, 2026 8:02 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:02 PM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

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INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Trent Thad SELL 30000 shares 2026-04-16

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Advanced ON Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ON price and gamma walls.

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