ORLA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ORLA - Orla Mining Ltd.
$9.44
0.50 (5.59%)
▲
5d:
+1.83%
30d:
-3.58%
90d:
-27.16%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 10, 2026
6d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.3/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ORLA appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -11.8% annual earnings decline despite 171% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ORLA appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -11.8% annual earnings decline despite 171% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$20.94
Based on 8.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$13.00
27.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ORLA is currently trading at $9.44, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.04 to $9.90. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.8) compared to its historical average (8.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 11.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 170.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ORLA is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $8.43, while resistance sits at $9.73. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.60 (+97.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ORLA is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $8.43, while resistance sits at $9.73. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.60 (+97.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$9.04 -
$9.90
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+5.6%)
- BULLISH: Trading 97.0% below Wall St target ($18.60)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$9.04 -
$9.90
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$8.43
Resistance Level
$9.74
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.76
Wall Street Target
$18.60
(+97.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
169.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
170.7%
Profit Margin
19.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-11.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.8 vs 8.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-11.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$8.50
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$7.65
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$6.88
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→8)
$10.04
(+6%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.8, Growth: 13.6%)
$50.08
(+431%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.8, Growth: 13.6%)
$13.86
(+47%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.9, Growth: 13.6%)
$11.78
(+25%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.42 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.72
Bull Case
$19.67
(+108%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 13.7
Base Case
$17.88
(+89%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 12.4
Bear Case
$6.08
(-36%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.8 to 8.4
Stabilization Target:
$13.77
(+45.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+45.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 8:35 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:35 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:35 PM
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