Latham Group (SWIM) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SWIM - Latham Group, Inc. Common Stock
$6.43
0.16 (2.47%)
▲
5d:
+2.88%
30d:
-6.48%
90d:
+3.63%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SWIM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: SWIM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$13.68
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8.49
24.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SWIM is currently trading at $6.42, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $6.24 to $6.94. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 22.3) compared to its historical average (26.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SWIM is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $6.00, while resistance sits at $6.79.
Market Sentiment: SWIM scores 69/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.61 (+37.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SWIM is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $6.00, while resistance sits at $6.79.
Market Sentiment: SWIM scores 69/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.61 (+37.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$6.24 -
$6.94
Company Quality Score
66/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (69/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 37.3% below Wall St target ($8.61)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 21% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$6.24 -
$6.94
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$6.00
Resistance Level
$6.79
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.32
Wall Street Target
$8.61
(+37.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-16.5%
Profit Margin
0.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
22.3 vs 26.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$5.93
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$5.61
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$5.31
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→26)
$6.25
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 33.6%)
$14.96
(+139%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.4, Growth: 33.6%)
$13.68
(+118%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.3, Growth: 33.6%)
$11.62
(+85%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (125x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 124.60 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.05
Bull Case
$13.71
(+119%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 137.1
Base Case
$12.46
(+99%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 124.6
Bear Case
$4.24
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 105.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 22.3 to 26.3
Stabilization Target:
$7.39
(+17.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+17.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 1:51 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:51 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:51 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SWIM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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