SWIM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SWIM - Latham Group, Inc. Common Stock
$5.88
0.12 (2.08%)
▲
5d:
+7.89%
30d:
+13.95%
90d:
+1.73%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SWIM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: SWIM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$13.17
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8.18
28.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SWIM is currently trading at $5.88, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.99 to $5.54. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 21.3) compared to its historical average (27.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 39.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SWIM is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $5.72. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SWIM has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.14 (+41.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SWIM is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $5.72. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SWIM has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.14 (+41.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$4.99 -
$5.54
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+6.1% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 41.4% below Wall St target ($8.14)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$4.99 -
$5.54
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$5.10
Resistance Level
$5.73
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.29
Wall Street Target
$8.14
(+41.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
39.2%
Profit Margin
1.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
21.3 vs 27.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$5.27
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$4.82
(-16%)
3-Year Target
$4.41
(-23%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→28)
$5.76
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 30.3%)
$13.03
(+126%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.3, Growth: 30.3%)
$12.74
(+121%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.1, Growth: 30.3%)
$10.83
(+88%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (83x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 83.14 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.07
Bull Case
$12.80
(+122%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 91.5
Base Case
$11.64
(+102%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 83.1
Bear Case
$3.96
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 70.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 21.3 to 27.8
Stabilization Target:
$7.52
(+30.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+30.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 3:49 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:49 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:49 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SWIM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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