Latham Group (SWIM) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SWIM - Latham Group, Inc. Common Stock
$6.48
0.17 (2.61%)
▲
5d:
+3.6%
30d:
+2.13%
90d:
+17.73%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
11d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SWIM shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SWIM shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$14.54
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$9.03
28.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SWIM is currently trading at $6.47, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $6.12 to $6.40. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 21.1) compared to its historical average (26.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SWIM is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $6.55. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SWIM scores 33/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.53 (+35.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SWIM is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $6.55. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SWIM scores 33/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.53 (+35.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$6.12 -
$6.40
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
42.3%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (33/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 35.1% below Wall St target ($8.53)
- WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$6.12 -
$6.40
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.55
(8.6%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$5.83
Resistance Level
$6.55
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.12
Wall Street Target
$8.53
(+35.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-16.5%
Profit Margin
0.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
21.1 vs 26.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$5.89
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$5.49
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$5.12
(-19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→26)
$6.31
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.1, Growth: 42.1%)
$18.11
(+187%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 42.1%)
$17.02
(+170%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 42.1%)
$14.47
(+129%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (126x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 126.20 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.05
Bull Case
$13.88
(+120%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 138.8
Base Case
$12.62
(+100%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 126.2
Bear Case
$4.29
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 107.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 21.1 to 26.0
Stabilization Target:
$7.77
(+23.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+23.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 2:56 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:56 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:56 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SWIM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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