VIV Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VIV - Telefonica Brasil, S.A. American Depositary Shares (each representing two (2) Common Shares)
$12.96
-0.12 (-0.92%)
▼
5d:
+3.6%
30d:
+10.86%
90d:
-8.15%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
5d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: VIV shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: VIV shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$19.96
Based on 8.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$12.39
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 2.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VIV is currently trading at $12.96, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.61 to $12.55. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 2.4) is in line with its historical norms (2.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 18.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VIV is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $13.13. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: VIV scores 20/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.26 (+17.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VIV is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $13.13. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: VIV scores 20/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.26 (+17.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$11.61 -
$12.55
Company Quality Score
34/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
26.2%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (20/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($15.26)
- WARNING: Composite score 34/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$11.61 -
$12.55
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$12.06
Resistance Level
$13.13
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
2.41
Wall Street Target
$15.26
(+17.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
18.5%
Profit Margin
10.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
2.4 vs 2.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.78
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$12.60
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$12.42
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 2→3)
$12.87
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 12.6%)
$152.22
(+1075%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 2.4, Growth: 12.6%)
$18.50
(+43%)
Bear:
(PE: 2.1, Growth: 12.6%)
$15.73
(+21%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (2x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.56 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.78
Bull Case
$28.42
(+117%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 18.2
Base Case
$25.84
(+98%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 16.6
Bear Case
$8.79
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 2.4 to 2.5
Stabilization Target:
$13.42
(+3.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 5:51 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:51 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:51 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is VIV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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