AAON Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AAON - Aaon Inc
$136.72
3.36 (2.52%)
▲
5d:
+6.28%
30d:
+4.95%
90d:
+70.79%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 10, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AAON shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.8% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AAON shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.8% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$160.27
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$99.51
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AAON is currently trading at $136.72, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $129.39 to $140.98. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 41.5) is in line with its historical norms (39.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AAON is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $118.61, while resistance sits at $141.72.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (13th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AAON is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $118.61, while resistance sits at $141.72.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (13th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$129.39 -
$140.98
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
13th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 13th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($143.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$129.39 -
$140.98
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$11.58
(8.5%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$118.61
Resistance Level
$141.73
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
41.53
Wall Street Target
$143.50
(+5.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
54.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
37.1%
Profit Margin
7.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.8% premium
PE vs Historical
41.5 vs 39.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$139.18
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$141.69
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$144.24
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 42→39)
PE COMPRESSION
$136.84
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 41.5, Growth: 45.7%)
$422.56
(+209%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 45.7%)
$221.60
(+62%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 45.7%)
$188.36
(+38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (63x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (42x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 62.89 | Forward EPS (Implied): $2.17
Bull Case
$165.09
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 66.0
Base Case
$136.72
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 62.9
Bear Case
$104.59
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 56.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 20, 2026 3:05 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:05 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:05 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AAON showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Rebecca Thompson
SELL
7292 shares
2026-04-23
Rebecca Thompson
SELL
2287 shares
2026-04-21
Casey Kidwell
SELL
5225 shares
2026-03-12
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Advanced AAON Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AAON price and gamma walls.
