AAON Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AAON - Aaon Inc
$148.25
4.75 (3.31%)
▲
5d:
+6.24%
30d:
+61.32%
90d:
+54.48%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 3, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 10, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AAON shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.5% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AAON shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.5% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$160.27
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$99.51
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AAON is currently trading at $148.25, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $101.14 to $143.35. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 43.6) compared to its historical average (39.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AAON is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $148.50. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AAON is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $148.50. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$101.14 -
$143.35
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
66.2%
Protect Your Profits
AAON is technically overbought (RSI 71). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.3%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($143.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$101.14 -
$143.35
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$126.67
Resistance Level
$148.50
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
43.59
Wall Street Target
$143.50
Revenue Growth (YoY)
54.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
37.1%
Profit Margin
7.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.5% premium
PE vs Historical
43.6 vs 39.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$148.52
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$153.72
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$159.10
(+11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 44→39)
PE COMPRESSION
$143.44
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 43.6, Growth: 45.7%)
$443.51
(+209%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.9, Growth: 45.7%)
$222.92
(+55%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.6, Growth: 45.7%)
$189.49
(+32%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (68x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (44x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 68.03 | Forward EPS (Implied): $2.09
Bull Case
$171.78
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 71.4
Base Case
$142.26
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 68.0
Bear Case
$108.83
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 61.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 03, 2026 4:40 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:40 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:40 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AAON showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Rebecca Thompson
SELL
7292 shares
2026-04-23
Rebecca Thompson
SELL
2287 shares
2026-04-21
Casey Kidwell
SELL
5225 shares
2026-03-12
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