SMCI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SMCI - Super Micro Computer, Inc. Common Stock
$28.15
-2.48 (-8.10%)
▼
5d:
-20.61%
30d:
-31.84%
90d:
+28.13%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 29, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: SMCI is down 20.6% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: SMCI is down 20.6% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$59.84
Based on 13.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$37.15
24.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SMCI is currently trading at $28.15, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $29.77 to $43.41. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.9) compared to its historical average (10.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 326.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMCI is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $27.71. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 8.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $37.25 (+32.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMCI is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $27.71. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 8.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $37.25 (+32.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$29.77 -
$43.41
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding SMCI? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-8.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading 32.3% below Wall St target ($37.25)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -20.6% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$29.77 -
$43.41
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$27.71
Resistance Level
$36.80
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 29, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.88
Wall Street Target
$37.25
(+32.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
122.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
326.0%
Profit Margin
3.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.9 vs 10.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$26.74
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$25.41
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$24.14
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→10)
$28.01
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 22.1%)
$125.89
(+347%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.9, Growth: 22.1%)
$51.30
(+82%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.5, Growth: 22.1%)
$43.61
(+55%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.12 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.90
Bull Case
$56.24
(+100%)
Analyst growth 66.9%, PE expands to 17.7
Base Case
$51.13
(+82%)
Market implied 66.9%, PE stable at 16.1
Bear Case
$20.83
(-26%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.9 to 10.3
Stabilization Target:
$32.67
(+16.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 30, 2026 2:24 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:24 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:24 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SMCI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced SMCI Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SMCI price and gamma walls.
