SMCI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SMCI - Super Micro Computer, Inc. Common Stock
$37.24
0.74 (2.03%)
▲
5d:
-6.53%
30d:
+19.36%
90d:
+11.3%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 11, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Aug 7, 2026 at $31.13 · last confirmed Aug 20, 2026
Strength: 9.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SMCI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SMCI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$72.64
Based on 8.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$45.10
17.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SMCI is currently trading at $37.24, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $26.30 to $35.64. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.7) compared to its historical average (10.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 409.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMCI is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $30.92, while resistance sits at $42.31.
Market Sentiment: SMCI scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $42.38 (+13.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMCI is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $30.92, while resistance sits at $42.31.
Market Sentiment: SMCI scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $42.38 (+13.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$26.30 -
$35.64
Company Quality Score
34/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
26.2%
Protect Your Profits
Holding SMCI? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($42.38)
- WARNING: Composite score 34/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$26.30 -
$35.64
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$30.92
Resistance Level
$42.31
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.68
Wall Street Target
$42.38
(+13.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
93.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
409.4%
Profit Margin
5.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.7 vs 10.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$34.12
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$31.12
(-17%)
3-Year Target
$28.38
(-24%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→10)
$37.31
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 12.3%)
$138.55
(+270%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.7, Growth: 12.3%)
$52.92
(+42%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.5, Growth: 12.3%)
$44.98
(+20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.97 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.90
Bull Case
$87.65
(+135%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 23.1
Base Case
$79.68
(+114%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 21.0
Bear Case
$27.09
(-27%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.7 to 10.1
Stabilization Target:
$49.19
(+31.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+31.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 1:26 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:26 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:26 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is SMCI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced SMCI Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SMCI price and gamma walls.
