SMCI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SMCI - Super Micro Computer, Inc. Common Stock
$30.10
-1.10 (-3.53%)
▼
5d:
+24.48%
30d:
-7.24%
90d:
+12.52%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 24, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 11, 2026
14d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 9.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SMCI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SMCI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$53.48
Based on 10.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$33.21
9.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SMCI is currently trading at $30.10, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $26.05 to $31.44. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.3) is in line with its historical norms (10.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 326.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMCI is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $23.38, while resistance sits at $32.59. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: SMCI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $38.44 (+27.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMCI is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $23.38, while resistance sits at $32.59. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: SMCI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $38.44 (+27.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$26.05 -
$31.44
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.5%)
- BULLISH: Trading 27.7% below Wall St target ($38.44)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$26.05 -
$31.44
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$23.38
Resistance Level
$32.59
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 24, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.29
Wall Street Target
$38.44
(+27.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
122.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
326.0%
Profit Margin
3.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.3 vs 10.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$29.20
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$28.32
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$27.47
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→10)
$30.15
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.8, Growth: 16.4%)
$106.19
(+253%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.3, Growth: 16.4%)
$47.42
(+58%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.9, Growth: 16.4%)
$40.31
(+34%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.08 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.94
Bull Case
$57.30
(+90%)
Analyst growth 67.0%, PE expands to 17.7
Base Case
$52.09
(+73%)
Market implied 67.0%, PE stable at 16.1
Bear Case
$21.22
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.3 to 10.2
Stabilization Target:
$33.04
(+9.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 27, 2026 6:22 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:22 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:22 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SMCI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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