UAL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UAL - United Airlines Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
$121.16
-4.84 (-3.84%)
▼
5d:
-8.56%
30d:
+17.88%
90d:
+25.68%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 15, 2026
TODAY
Smart Money Accumulation
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Strength: 7.7/10
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1 traders called UAL this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: UAL is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.2% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: UAL is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.2% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$213.91
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$132.82
8.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UAL is currently trading at $121.16, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $111.50 to $132.62. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 8.2) compared to its historical average (7.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UAL is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $117.96. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $152.97 (+26.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UAL is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $117.96. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $152.97 (+26.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$111.50 -
$132.62
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.6%
Protect Your Profits
Holding UAL? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.8%)
- BULLISH: Trading 26.3% below Wall St target ($152.97)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -8.6% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$111.50 -
$132.62
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$103.50
Resistance Level
$117.96
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.16
Wall Street Target
$152.97
(+26.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
84.5%
Profit Margin
6.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.2% premium
PE vs Historical
8.2 vs 7.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$125.04
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$129.04
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$133.17
(+10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→7)
PE COMPRESSION
$120.74
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 43.4%)
$952.46
(+686%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.2, Growth: 43.4%)
$356.93
(+195%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.9, Growth: 43.4%)
$303.39
(+150%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.27 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.18
Bull Case
$184.03
(+52%)
Analyst growth 32.8%, PE expands to 12.4
Base Case
$167.30
(+38%)
Market implied 32.8%, PE stable at 11.3
Bear Case
$85.68
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 8:02 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:02 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:02 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UAL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-30
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-10
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
SELL
2026-02-10
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