UAL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UAL - United Airlines Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
$118.44
0.12 (0.10%)
▲
5d:
+2.53%
30d:
+20.83%
90d:
+31.67%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 15, 2026
22d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 10.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: UAL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: UAL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$202.11
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$125.49
5.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UAL is currently trading at $118.44, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $96.88 to $114.52. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 8.3) compared to its historical average (7.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UAL is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $117.96. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: UAL has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $132.08 (+11.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UAL is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $117.96. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: UAL has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $132.08 (+11.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$96.88 -
$114.52
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($132.08)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$96.88 -
$114.52
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$103.50
Resistance Level
$117.96
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.32
Wall Street Target
$132.08
(+11.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
84.5%
Profit Margin
6.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.6% premium
PE vs Historical
8.3 vs 7.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$123.76
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$129.46
(+9%)
3-Year Target
$135.41
(+14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→7)
PE COMPRESSION
$118.78
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 53.3%)
$1045.09
(+783%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.3, Growth: 53.3%)
$399.33
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.1, Growth: 53.3%)
$339.43
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.36 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.18
Bull Case
$162.03
(+37%)
Analyst growth 27.2%, PE expands to 11.4
Base Case
$147.30
(+25%)
Market implied 27.2%, PE stable at 10.4
Bear Case
$78.76
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 22, 2026 10:34 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:34 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:34 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UAL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-30
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-10
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
SELL
2026-02-10
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's UAL price and gamma walls.
