AMBA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AMBA - Ambarella, Inc. Ordinary Shares
$78.36
-9.98 (-11.30%)
▼
5d:
+22.23%
30d:
-0.03%
90d:
+53.41%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 27, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 5.9/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AMBA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.0% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AMBA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.0% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$24.87
Based on 8.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$15.44
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AMBA is currently trading at $78.36, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $63.19 to $82.02. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 116.8) compared to its historical average (100.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMBA is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $60.34, while resistance sits at $94.00. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 11.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: AMBA has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $95.00 (+21.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMBA is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $60.34, while resistance sits at $94.00. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 11.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: AMBA has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $95.00 (+21.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$63.19 -
$82.02
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-11.3%)
- BULLISH: Trading 21.2% below Wall St target ($95.00)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 5.0% growth which is achievable
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$63.19 -
$82.02
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$60.34
Resistance Level
$94.00
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
116.85
Wall Street Target
$95.00
(+21.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.9%
Profit Margin
-17.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.0% premium
PE vs Historical
116.9 vs 100.9
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$82.28
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$86.39
(+10%)
3-Year Target
$90.71
(+16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 117→101)
PE COMPRESSION
$78.33
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 116.9, Growth: 12.5%)
$111.68
(+43%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 12.5%)
$20.82
(-73%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 12.5%)
$17.69
(-77%)
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 3:04 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:04 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:04 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AMBA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
10
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
John Alexander Young
SELL
1971 shares
2026-04-21
Chan W Lee
SELL
3641 shares
2026-03-19
Chi-Hong Ju
SELL
2155 shares
2026-03-19
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AMBA price and gamma walls.
