LKQ Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
LKQ - LKQ Corporation
$25.02
-1.21 (-4.63%)
▼
5d:
-1.77%
30d:
+0.93%
90d:
-12.61%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 17, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: LKQ shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 6.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: LKQ shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 6.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$44.86
Based on 8.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$27.85
10.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LKQ is currently trading at $25.02, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $25.12 to $26.99. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.5) compared to its historical average (9.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LKQ is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $24.72. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $40.81 (+63.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LKQ is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $24.72. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $40.81 (+63.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$25.12 -
$26.99
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.6%)
- BULLISH: Trading 63.1% below Wall St target ($40.81)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$25.12 -
$26.99
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$24.72
Resistance Level
$27.92
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.53
Wall Street Target
$40.81
(+63.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-52.8%
Profit Margin
3.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.5 vs 9.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$23.44
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$21.97
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$20.58
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$25.16
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 12.0%)
$101.60
(+306%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.5, Growth: 12.0%)
$35.11
(+40%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.4, Growth: 12.0%)
$29.84
(+19%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.14 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.99
Bull Case
$48.03
(+83%)
Analyst growth 67.0%, PE expands to 14.5
Base Case
$43.67
(+66%)
Market implied 67.0%, PE stable at 13.1
Bear Case
$17.78
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.5 to 9.2
Stabilization Target:
$30.58
(+22.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+22.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 17, 2026 5:14 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:14 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:14 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is LKQ showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-30
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