Is MCD stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, MCD is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MCD shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of MCD stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for MCD to be between $265.22 and $273.51. The current price is $260.06.

What is the analyst price target for MCD?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for MCD is $316.06. This implies a potential upside of 21.5% from current levels.

MCD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

MCD - McDonald's Corporation

RETAIL-EATING PLACES

$260.06

-6.87 (-2.57%) ▼

5d: -3.37%

30d: -4.22%

90d: -6.44%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

Protect Your MCD Gains

Analysis Updated: Aug 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Aug 04, 2026 0d

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 27, 2026 at $260.06 · last confirmed Aug 27, 2026

Strength: 6.5/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MCD shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 8.2%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$402.58

Based on 6.1% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$249.97

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.4x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: MCD is currently trading at $260.06, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $265.22 to $273.51. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 18.6) compared to its historical average (21.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 5.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, MCD is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $259.85. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $316.06 (+21.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD

Historical Trading Range $265.22 - $273.51

Company Quality Score 46/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 79.5%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (43/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 21.5% below Wall St target ($316.06)
WARNING: Composite score 46/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $265.22 - $273.51

Current vs Trading Range OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $259.85

Resistance Level $275.34

Current Trend Strong Downtrend

Technical data as of Aug 27, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 18.58

Wall Street Target $316.06 (+21.5%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 3.7%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 5.7%

Profit Margin 31.7%

Valuation Discount vs History -4.6% cheaper

PE vs Historical 18.6 vs 21.4 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -4.6% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $248.10 (-5%)

2-Year Target $236.68 (-9%)

3-Year Target $225.80 (-13%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 19→21) $260.10 (0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.1, Growth: 8.2%) $355.92 (+37%)

Base: (SPY PE: 18.6, Growth: 8.2%) $329.46 (+27%)

Bear: (PE: 15.8, Growth: 8.2%) $280.04 (+8%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 21.68 | Current EPS (TTM): $12.31

Bull Case $333.90 (+28%)

Analyst growth 13.7%, PE expands to 23.9

Base Case $303.54 (+17%)

Market implied 13.7%, PE stable at 21.7

Bear Case $181.51 (-30%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.4

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.6 to 21.4

Stabilization Target: $299.57 (+15.2%)

PE Expansion Potential: +15.2%

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Last updated: August 27, 2026 9:17 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:17 PM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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Net

INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Joseph M Erlinger SELL 333 shares 2026-04-23

Joseph M Erlinger SELL 2626 shares 2026-04-10

Ro Khanna BUY 2026-03-30

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