MCD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MCD - McDonald's Corporation
$267.71
-5.75 (-2.10%)
▼
5d:
-2.51%
30d:
-7.02%
90d:
-12.79%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 17, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
17d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MCD trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.5% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MCD trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.5% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$424.83
Based on 6.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$263.79
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MCD is currently trading at $267.71, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $269.15 to $282.63. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 18.9) compared to its historical average (21.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 6.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCD is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $264.09. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MCD has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $327.29 (+22.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCD is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $264.09. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MCD has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $327.29 (+22.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$269.15 -
$282.63
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 22.3% below Wall St target ($327.29)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$269.15 -
$282.63
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$264.09
Resistance Level
$287.10
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 17, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.90
Wall Street Target
$327.29
(+22.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
6.9%
Profit Margin
31.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.9 vs 21.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$255.66
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$244.16
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$233.17
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→22)
$267.76
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.0, Growth: 9.4%)
$389.49
(+46%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.9, Growth: 9.4%)
$350.31
(+31%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.1, Growth: 9.4%)
$297.77
(+11%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.54 | Current EPS (TTM): $12.13
Bull Case
$351.32
(+31%)
Analyst growth 16.8%, PE expands to 24.8
Base Case
$319.38
(+19%)
Market implied 16.8%, PE stable at 22.5
Bear Case
$185.95
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.9 to 21.7
Stabilization Target:
$307.43
(+14.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 18, 2026 5:25 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:25 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:25 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MCD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
11
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Joseph M Erlinger
SELL
333 shares
2026-04-23
Joseph M Erlinger
SELL
2626 shares
2026-04-10
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-30
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