RIO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
RIO - Rio Tinto plc
$100.08
-2.59 (-2.52%)
▼
5d:
-3.43%
30d:
-0.83%
90d:
+16.85%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: RIO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: RIO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$127.86
Based on 4.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$79.39
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RIO is currently trading at $100.08, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $101.81 to $108.55. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.3) is in line with its historical norms (11.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RIO is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $98.43. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RIO is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $98.43. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$101.81 -
$108.55
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($102.87)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$101.81 -
$108.55
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$98.43
Resistance Level
$112.21
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.32
Wall Street Target
$102.87
(+2.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-5.6%
Profit Margin
17.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.3 vs 11.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$99.48
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$98.88
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$98.29
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→12)
$99.81
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 5.4%)
$225.34
(+125%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.3, Growth: 5.4%)
$117.17
(+17%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.6, Growth: 5.4%)
$99.59
(-1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.89 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.08
Bull Case
$164.15
(+64%)
Analyst growth 45.3%, PE expands to 18.6
Base Case
$149.23
(+49%)
Market implied 45.3%, PE stable at 16.9
Bear Case
$69.82
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.3 to 11.5
Stabilization Target:
$101.63
(+1.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 18, 2026 10:02 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:02 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:02 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is RIO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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