Rio Tinto (RIO) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
RIO - Rio Tinto plc
$81.62
-1.11 (-1.34%)
▼
5d:
-4.81%
30d:
-14.67%
90d:
-19.59%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Nov 3, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: RIO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: RIO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$187.28
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$116.29
29.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RIO is currently trading at $81.62, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $84.99 to $94.54. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 9.6) compared to its historical average (11.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 46.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RIO is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $81.21. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 49/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $102.71 (+25.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RIO is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $81.21. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 49/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $102.71 (+25.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$84.99 -
$94.54
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (49/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 25.8% below Wall St target ($102.71)
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (49/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$84.99 -
$94.54
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$81.21
Resistance Level
$88.10
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.59
Wall Street Target
$102.71
(+25.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
46.9%
Profit Margin
19.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.6 vs 11.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$77.38
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$73.35
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$69.54
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→11)
$81.94
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 98.7%)
$174.08
(+113%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.6, Growth: 98.7%)
$84.06
(+3%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.2, Growth: 98.7%)
$71.45
(-13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.21 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.38
Bull Case
$104.95
(+29%)
Analyst growth 15.3%, PE expands to 12.3
Base Case
$95.41
(+17%)
Market implied 15.3%, PE stable at 11.2
Bear Case
$56.26
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.6 to 11.3
Stabilization Target:
$96.17
(+17.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+17.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: November 04, 2026 7:25 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:25 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:25 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is RIO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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