TOL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TOL - Toll Brothers, Inc.
$141.47
1.25 (0.90%)
▲
5d:
-4.53%
30d:
-7.68%
90d:
+2.94%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 18, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TOL shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TOL shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$200.63
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$124.57
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TOL is currently trading at $141.47, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $144.62 to $152.40. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.0) is in line with its historical norms (10.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TOL is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $140.05. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 53/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $171.87 (+22.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TOL is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $140.05. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 53/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $171.87 (+22.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$144.62 -
$152.40
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding TOL? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (53/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 22.6% below Wall St target ($171.87)
- WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$144.62 -
$152.40
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$6.26
(4.4%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$140.05
Resistance Level
$152.06
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.99
Wall Street Target
$171.87
(+22.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-9.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-20.4%
Profit Margin
11.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.0 vs 10.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$139.23
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$138.25
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$137.29
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
$140.20
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 10.0%)
$375.58
(+168%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.0, Growth: 10.0%)
$186.63
(+33%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.5, Growth: 10.0%)
$158.64
(+13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.56 | Current EPS (TTM): $12.41
Bull Case
$178.49
(+27%)
Analyst growth 13.1%, PE expands to 12.7
Base Case
$162.26
(+16%)
Market implied 13.1%, PE stable at 11.6
Bear Case
$97.55
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.0 to 10.2
Stabilization Target:
$143.18
(+2.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 02, 2026 2:20 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:20 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:20 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TOL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Stephen F East
SELL
1000 shares
2026-04-15
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Advanced TOL Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TOL price and gamma walls.
