Toll Brothers (TOL) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TOL - Toll Brothers, Inc.
$145.95
1.68 (1.16%)
▲
5d:
+4.32%
30d:
+7.03%
90d:
-3.0%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Dec 14, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TOL shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TOL shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$180.62
Based on 5.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$112.15
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TOL is currently trading at $145.95, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $132.90 to $140.09. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.7) is in line with its historical norms (10.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.8% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TOL is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $147.33. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TOL scores 30/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $168.50 (+15.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TOL is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $147.33. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TOL scores 30/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $168.50 (+15.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$132.90 -
$140.09
Company Quality Score
38/100
(SELL)
Options IV Signal
40th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
37.3%
Protect Your Profits
Holding TOL? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 40th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (30/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($168.50)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.8% growth with -9.7% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 38/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$132.90 -
$140.09
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$8.33
(5.7%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$130.92
Resistance Level
$147.33
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.71
Wall Street Target
$168.50
(+15.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-9.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-20.4%
Profit Margin
11.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.8% premium
PE vs Historical
10.7 vs 10.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$148.58
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$151.25
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$153.97
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$145.15
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 7.2%)
$333.06
(+128%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.7, Growth: 7.2%)
$179.67
(+23%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.1, Growth: 7.2%)
$152.72
(+5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.63 | Current EPS (TTM): $12.41
Bull Case
$174.20
(+19%)
Analyst growth 9.8%, PE expands to 12.8
Base Case
$158.37
(+9%)
Market implied 9.8%, PE stable at 11.6
Bear Case
$98.10
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 30, 2026 9:48 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:48 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:48 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TOL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced TOL Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TOL price and gamma walls.
